Predictions
389 of 1,607 predictions match — page 4 of 8. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 229_044 | AI | humanoids | Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 234_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_007 | AI | AI-timing | Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI | Kevin Weil | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_016 | AI | $100T | Enterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capex | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_044 | AI | AI-timing | Intelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQ | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-08-31 |
| 234_047 | AI | AI-scaling | Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_048 | AI | AI-scaling | Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-11-30 |
| 236_030 | AI | $100T | AI will create trillions of dollars of value and transform how we work and live | Andrew Yang | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 236_033 | AI | AI-timing | Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours | Andrew Yang | 5/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_001 | AI | AI-scaling | Cost drop in AI models will make them much more accessible to many more people | Unknown | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_002 | AI | AI-timing | Rising cost of talent will force Frontier Labs to compete on algorithmic insi… | Unknown | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-09-30 |
| 238_007 | AI | AI-scaling | There will be no more than ~10 foundation model labs globally, but thousands … | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-11-30 |
| 238_011 | AI | $100T | Frontier AI labs will generate trillions of dollars in new revenue from break… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_012 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes | Kevin Weil | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_013 | AI | AGI | Frontier labs will increasingly keep their most capable models secret to self… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_014 | AI | AI-scaling | Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do an… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_021 | AI | AI-timing | Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_022 | AI | AI-timing | From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_024 | AI | AI-timing | AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_026 | AI | AI-timing | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_027 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_030 | AI | AI-scaling | AI will soon make very good venture capital investment decisions | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_034 | AI | AI-scaling | Software developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the n… | Andrej Karpathy | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_035 | AI | AI-scaling | AI agents will outnumber humans — trillion agents vs 8 billion humans | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_037 | AI | AI-scaling | Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-09-30 |
| 238_038 | AI | AI-scaling | Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attent… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_071 | AI | AI-scaling | Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-tra… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 239_005 | AI | AGI | AI intelligence will far exceed human intelligence to incomprehensible degree | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_006 | AI | AGI | AI will solve everything including longevity | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_007 | AI | AGI | Humans will become microscopic minority of intelligence on Earth and in solar… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_020 | AI | AGI | AI and robots will saturate all human desires, running out of things to do | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_022 | AI | AGI | Future AI will care about power/mass rather than human currency | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_029 | AI | AGI | Intelligence in solar system will be many orders of magnitude greater than on… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 239_032 | AI | AGI | Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_013 | AI | AI-timing | Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers … | Sam Altman | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_018 | AI | $100T | Trillion dollar company to be built turning every individual into a one-perso… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_020 | AI | AI-scaling | New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next A… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_021 | AI | AI-timing | Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_024 | AI | AGI | Advanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionate | Marc Andreessen | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_025 | AI | AI-timing | Tesla's Terra Fab initial capacity 100,000 wafers, scaling to 1 million per m… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_033 | AI | AI-timing | AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_053 | AI | AI-timing | AI will generate millions of novel inventions overnight; patents become meani… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_054 | AI | AGI | ASI will reinvent patent and copyright practices | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-10-31 |
| 240_057 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_006 | AI | AI-timing | Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 242_043 | AI | AI-scaling | AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_044 | AI | AI-scaling | Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_045 | AI | economy | AI will redesign data centers, energy supplies, and entire economy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_046 | AI | AI-scaling | Custom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvements | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |