Validations Queue
47,884 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 1 of 140, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.84 | Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.84 | Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-01-23 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.84 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-01-23 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.84 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.84 | Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.80 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.80 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-01-23 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.80 | Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.80 | Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-01-23 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.80 | Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.79 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-19 | 235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.79 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-02-03 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.79 | Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.78 | Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-01-23 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | |
| 0.78 | Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | |
| 0.78 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.78 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-02-03 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.78 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2025-12-11 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.78 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-01-23 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.78 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | |
| 0.78 | Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.78 | Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | |
| 0.78 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-01-23 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | |
| 0.78 | Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-01-23 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.78 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.78 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.78 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-19 | 247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.78 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-01-30 | 246_009 SpaceX and Tesla will NOT merge absent financial distress or capital need. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.78 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-01-30 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | |
| 0.77 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.77 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-02-03 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.77 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-02-03 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.77 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?(market prob: 79%) | polymarket 2025-12-11 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.77 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2025-12-11 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.77 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2025-12-10 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2025-12-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2025-12-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.76 | Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2025-12-11 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-02-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-02-03 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2025-12-11 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.76 | Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.76 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-01-23 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.76 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.76 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-19 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2025-12-11 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?(market prob: 79%) | polymarket 2025-12-11 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-02-03 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2025-12-10 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.76 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-01-30 | 246_008 Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 62% | |
| 0.76 | Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-01-23 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2025-12-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-02-03 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.76 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-19 | 246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-02-03 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.76 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?(market prob: 79%) | polymarket 2025-12-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.75 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.75 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.75 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-02-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.75 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 80%) | polymarket 2025-10-10 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.75 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-02-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.75 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 80%) | polymarket 2025-10-10 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.75 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.75 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.75 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-19 | 246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | |
| 0.75 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-03-20 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.75 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-02-03 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.75 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.75 | Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.75 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.75 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-02-06 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.75 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2025-10-24 | 236_010 5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next day Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.75 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.75 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-03-20 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.75 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-19 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.74 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 93%) | polymarket 2026-04-01 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.74 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-29 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.74 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2025-11-24 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.74 | Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 54% | |
| 0.74 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 93%) | polymarket 2026-04-01 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.74 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 93%) | polymarket 2026-04-01 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.74 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.74 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2025-11-24 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.74 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-19 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 46% | |
| 0.74 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2025-12-11 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.74 | Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.74 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.74 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-02-03 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | |
| 0.74 | Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.74 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2025-12-10 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.74 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-19 | 238_051 If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.74 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-02-03 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.74 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2025-11-24 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.74 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | |
| 0.74 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 93%) | polymarket 2026-04-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% |