Validations Queue
116,327 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 483 of 2154, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.65 | arxiv 2026-07-08 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.65 | arxiv 2026-07-07 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.65 | arxiv 2026-07-07 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.65 | arxiv 2026-07-07 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.65 | arxiv 2026-07-08 | CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil | AI | 63% | ||
| 0.65 | arxiv 2026-07-08 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.65 | arxiv 2026-07-08 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.65 | arxiv 2026-07-08 | SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 64% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 240_003 NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.65 | Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.65 | Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.65 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.65 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.65 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 235_044 AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.65 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.65 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 246_003 Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 37% | ||
| 0.65 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.65 | MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.65 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Google announce Gemini 4 at I/O 2026 (May 19-20)?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.65 | Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.65 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Will I make IMO in 2028(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 3?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.65 | Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 3?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.65 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May?(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.65 | Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.65 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.65 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.65 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Will a bot win prize drawing this year?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.65 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.65 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.65 | FDA ANDA213885: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — EUGIA PHARMA | fda 2026-04-27 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.65 | FDA ANDA219271: CYCLOPHOSPHAMIDE (CYCLOPHOSPHAMIDE) — HETERO LABS LIMITED | fda 2026-04-29 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.65 | github_release 2026-04-07 | 231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.65 | github_release 2026-01-08 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.65 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.65 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.65 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | INF_041 K-12 education will be rebuilt from first principles using AI systems — institutions like Alpha School shifting from rote white-collar training toward systems-thinking, AI-human symbiosis, and management of intelligence platforms. Joe Liemandt / MacKenzie Price | Education | 59% |