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103,951 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 372 of 553, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Wimbledon ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: REBORN vs Joblife (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs MAGICOS - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque | Media/Ads | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Belgium be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | United States to win the second half?(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Wimbledon ATP: Completed Match: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 234_047 Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advance(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.58 | United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Colombia vs. Ghana: Colombia O/U 1.5(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: Hive vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Netanyahu out by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-17 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Massimo Giunta(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.58 | Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 29% | |
| 0.58 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% |