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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.64	CO-MAP: A Reinforcement Learning Approach to the Qubit Allocation Problem	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Dynamical Predictive Modelling of Cardiovascular Disease Progression Post-Myocardial Infarction via ECG-Trained Artificial Intelligence Model	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	Q-Flow: Stable and Expressive Reinforcement Learning with Flow-Based Policy	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Neural Surrogate Forward Modelling For Electrocardiology Without Explicit Intracellular Conductivity Tensor	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	PaMM: Periodic Motif Memory for Atomistic Models with an Explicit Local-Structure Interface	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	N-vium: Mixture-of-Exits Transformer for Accelerated Exact Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	DiffusionHijack: Supply-Chain PRNG Backdoor Attack on Diffusion Models and Quantum Random Number Defense	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Watermarking Should Be Treated as a Monitoring Primitive	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	FDA ANDA215826: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will WTI close(or open) $108 in May 2026? (After May 10)(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-10	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.64	Eradicating Negative Transfer in Multi-Physics Foundation Models via Sparse Mixture-of-Experts Routing	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Widening the Gap: Exploiting LLM Quantization via Outlier Injection	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Widening the Gap: Exploiting LLM Quantization via Outlier Injection	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.64	Croissant Baker: Metadata Generation for Discoverable, Governable, and Reusable ML Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Video2GUI: Synthesizing Large-Scale Interaction Trajectories for Generalized GUI Agent Pretraining	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.64	Discovering Physical Directions in Weight Space: Composing Neural PDE Experts	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Fully Dynamic Rebalancing in Dockless Bike-Sharing Systems via Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	ROAD: Adaptive Data Mixing for Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning via Bi-Level Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Test-Time Learning with an Evolving Library	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	NodeSynth: Socially Aligned Synthetic Data for AI Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	Self-Regulated Learning in Essay Writing: Consistency of Strategies and Impact on Outcomes	arxiv 2026-05-14	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	Will Bitcoin trade above $90,000 between now and June 1, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-16	236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	50%
0.64	Change my view: artificial superintelligence is not as serious of a risk as Eliezer Yudkowsky claims it to be.(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-17	IND_009 Artificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all human illnesses will be cured 'much sooner than we think'; mechanism: AI not just predicting protein structures but generating novel biological designs revolutionizing drug d... Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	19%
0.64	How will reading "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All" affect my P(Doom)?	manifold 2026-05-17	232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.64	Will an AI-generated movie hit Netflix Top 10 in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-18	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.64	Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.64	Aligned Training: A Parameter-Free Method to Improve Feature Quality and Stability of Sparse Autoencoders (SAE)	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	DiPRL: Learning Discrete Programmatic Policies via Architecture Entropy Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Scheduling That Speaks: An Interpretable Programmatic Reinforcement Learning Framework	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	PH-Dreamer: A Physics-Driven World Model via Port-Hamiltonian Generative Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	A Unified Framework for Structured Flow Modeling: From Continuous Fields to Data-Driven Representations	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Equilibrium Selection in Multi-Agent Policy Gradients via Opponent-Aware Basin Entry	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Protection Is (Nearly) All You Need: Structural Protection Dominates Scoring in Globally Capped KV Eviction	arxiv 2026-05-18	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	Unveiling Memorization-Generalization Coexistence: A Case Study on Arithmetic Tasks with Label Noise	arxiv 2026-05-18	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.64	RL4RLA: Teaching ML to Discover Randomized Linear Algebra Algorithms Through Curriculum Design and Graph-Based Search	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Enhancing the Code Reasoning Capabilities of LLMs via Consistency-based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Guard: Scalable Straggler Detection and Node Health Management for Large-Scale Training	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	DAD4TS: Data-Augmentation-Oriented Diffusion Model for Time-Series Forecasting with Small-Scale Data	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Self-Distillation is Optimal Among Spectral Shrinkage Estimators in Spiked Covariance Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	242_004 Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.64	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.64	Will Polymarket feature a market about Teamfight Tactics before 2028?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-05-24	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Will the OSN-K 2026 announcement be on time?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-24	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.64	EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) (CIK 0000034088)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	GPIC: A Giant Permissive Image Corpus for Visual Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	When Should Models Change Their Minds? Contextual Belief Management in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Selective QA over Conflicting Multi-Source Personal Memory: A Diagnostic Testbed and Method Comparison	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	VisualThink-VLA: Visual Intermediate Reasoning for Effective and Low-Latency Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Cookie-Bench: Continuous On-screen Key Interaction Evaluation for Web Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Selection Hyper-heuristics Can Automatically Adjust the Learning Period to Optimally Solve Pseudo-Boolean Problems	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Benchmarking Positional Encoding Strategies for Transformer-Based EEG Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	BitTP: The Lightweight Trajectory Prediction Model with BitLLM for Edge-Devices	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Learning to Extrapolate to New Tasks: A Relational Approach to Task Extrapolation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	From Short Histories to Long Futures: Horizon-Aware Graph Neural Networks for Long Horizon Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	A Domain-Informed Multi-Objective Framework for EEG Channel Selection in Motor Imagery BCIs	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. Dave Blundin	AI	37%
0.64	Treatment-Conditioned Diffusion for Forecasting Neurodegenerative Disease Progression	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	Midpoint Generative Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.64	Eigen-Spike Emergence and Quadratic Equivalents for Conjugate Kernels on Nonlinearly Separable Data	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Harmless Yet Harmful: Neutral Prompting Attacks for Stealthy Hallucination Steering in Agent Skills	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Knowing What to Solve Before How: Preplan Empowered LLM Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	SEAL: Can Saturated Benchmarks Be Revived by LLM-as-a-Meta-Judge?	arxiv 2026-05-28	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.64	DirectorBench: Diagnosing Long-Form Video Generation with Personalized Multi-Agent Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Recovering Diversity Without Losing Alignment: A DPO Recipe for Post-Trained LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	EvoRubric: Self-Evolving Rubric-Driven RL for Open-Ended Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	Recovering Policy-Induced Errors: Benchmarking and Trajectory Synthesis for Robust GUI Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.64	Recovering Policy-Induced Errors: Benchmarking and Trajectory Synthesis for Robust GUI Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	SURGENT: A Surgical Multi-Agent Assistance System Across the Perioperative Workflow	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	STAMP: Training Explicit Memory for Mobile GUI Agents in Controllable and Scalable Virtual Environments	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	MusTBENCH: Benchmarking and Advancing Temporal Grounding in Music LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	RUBRIC-ARROW: Alternating Pointwise Rubric Reward Modeling for LLM Post-training in Non-verifiable Domains	arxiv 2026-05-27	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	The Open Motion Planning Library 2.0	arxiv 2026-05-28	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	Will Bitcoin be higher than right now, exactly 7 days from now?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-29	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.64	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	By how much will Colombia's 10Y bond yield drop when bond markets open after 5/31/26?	manifold 2026-06-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	FDA ANDA218488: EVEROLIMUS (EVEROLIMUS) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-31	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.64	From Layers to Submodules: Rethinking Granularity in Replacement-Based LLM Compression	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Moment-Video: Diagnosing Temporal Fidelity of Video MLLMs on Momentary Visual Events	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	MCP-Persona: Benchmarking LLM Agents on Real-World Personal Applications via Environment Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	MASER: Modality-Adaptive Specialist Routing for Embodied 3D Spatial Intelligence	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	PaSBench-Video: A Streaming Video Benchmark for Proactive Safety Warning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	PaSBench-Video: A Streaming Video Benchmark for Proactive Safety Warning	arxiv 2026-06-01	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	CEON: Circular Economy Ontology Network	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.64	Faster Synchronous On-Policy RL via Straggler-Aware Group Sizing	arxiv 2026-06-01	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.64	Understanding-Enhanced Model Collaboration for Long-Tailed Egocentric Mistake Detection	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	eMoT: evolving Memory-of-Thought via Symbolic Anchoring and Memory Corrosion	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	OpenWebRL: Demystifying Online Multi-turn Reinforcement Learning for Visual Web Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.64	Towards 3D-Aware Video Diffusion Models: Render-Free Human Motion Control with Mesh Tokenization	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	TriAlign: Towards Universal Truth Consistency in Personalized LLM Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	TRON: Targeted Rule-Verifiable Online Environments for Visual Reasoning RL	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	ClawHub Security Signals: When VirusTotal, Static Analysis, and SkillSpector Disagree	arxiv 2026-05-31	237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.64	Expressivity of congruence-based architectures for DNNs on positive-definite matrices	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Speculative Sampling For Faster Molecular Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.64	Spectral Audit of In-Context Operator Networks	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%