Predictions
165 of 1,621 predictions match — page 1 of 4. Click any row to view its detail.
Filters
Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 230_046 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dr… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 231_014 | AI | AI-scaling | Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 231_041 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing d… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 231_053 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 232_015 | AI | AI-scaling | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 232_021 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administrat… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 232_043 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Corporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| 233_005 | AI | AI-scaling | Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 233_014 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-scaling | Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won'… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2038-11-30 |
| 234_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 234_035 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 235_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 235_004 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregula… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 235_005 | AI | AI-scaling | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 235_006 | AI | AI-scaling | By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 235_007 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 235_009 | Defense | AI-scaling | Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-09-30 |
| 235_046 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferat… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 236_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 236_017 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_023 | AI | AI-scaling | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in … | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_061 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_062 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Industrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40) | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 240_010 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 240_016 | AI | AI-scaling | Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 240_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 240_028 | Space | AI-scaling | Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 240_029 | AI | AI-scaling | ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buil… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 240_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the ne… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_048 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 240_050 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 242_010 | AI | AI-scaling | By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new m… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 242_035 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FC… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-05-31 |
| 242_049 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 246_052 | AI | AI-scaling | Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_008 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 247_009 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 247_028 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 248_011 | AI | AI-scaling | Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon th… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 248_043 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| IND_007 | Labor/Jobs | corporate-collapse-2026-buzzard-human | Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | C | 38.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| SEM_021 | AI/China | AI-scaling | Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chi… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 55.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| SEM_022 | AI/Architecture | AI-scaling | FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 78.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 231_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, … | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 35.0% | miss | 2026-03-01 – 2026-03-31 |
| 231_018 | AI | AI-scaling | Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 35.0% | miss | 2026-03-01 – 2026-03-31 |
| 229_036 | Space | AI-scaling | Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_038 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robo… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_040 | Robotics | AI-scaling | When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millim… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 234_030 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Auto insurance industry will shrink as crashes decline from self-driving | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |