Predictions
91 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 2. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 244_016 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | AV will grow very quickly but remains very small industry today | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 242_012 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 months | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 243_002 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 243_035 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 243_043 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150K | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 243_044 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Tesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim) | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 243_045 | Auto/Transport | jobs | Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 244_003 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Regulators will have to decide what a human driver's license looks like | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2051-11-30 |
| 244_020 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| AUT_008 | Auto/Transport | Uber-AV-partnerships-20K-vehicles | Uber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | A | 68.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2056-11-30 |
| AUT_013 | Auto/Transport | robotaxi-25-50-percent-US-2026 | 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| AUT_022 | Auto/Transport | AV-inflection-2026-33-launches | 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecastin… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 58.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| FUT_013 | Auto/Transport | battery-swapping-clean-li-ion-shipping | Exponential scaling of modular battery swapping infrastructure (Ample), mass … | Ramez Naam | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| INF_065 | Auto/Transport | uber-robotaxi-charging-$100M | Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV chargin… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| INF_067 | Auto/Transport | utilization-guarantee-agreements | Uber will execute "utilization guarantee agreements" with major charging netw… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| SPC_020 | Auto/Transport | Archer-Midnight-commercial-2026 | Archer Aviation's flagship Midnight eVTOL will launch commercial passenger fl… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | B | 38.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 234_030 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Auto insurance industry will shrink as crashes decline from self-driving | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 234_031 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Only 20 million cars needed once FSD robotaxis arrive, down from 140 million | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 236_037 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Transportation will shift from ownership to subscription/access model | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-10-31 |
| 236_042 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Insurance underwriting will flip from driver risk to systemic risk as FSD mat… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 238_018 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Uber drivers face rampant, imminent job loss from self-driving cars | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 242_014 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Human driving will become illegal starting in city centers, then broadening out | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 242_017 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Self-driving will become 95-97% safer than human driving | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 242_018 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Human driving will never become illegal; driving will be redefined as higher … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 242_020 | Auto/Transport | AGI | Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 242_021 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 242_026 | Auto/Transport | SpaceX | Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch c… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 242_027 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Hyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, not humans | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 242_053 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | New car manufacturing demand will collapse by ~50% due to AV utilization | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-10-31 |
| 242_058 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-11-30 |
| 242_059 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_001 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-not… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_004 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Uber would welcome Tesla on platform once camera-only FSD is safe | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 243_005 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | There will be many many winners in the autonomous space | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_006 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Autonomous fleets will move to asset-light model with financial owners like B… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_007 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Autonomous mobility will become another trillion-dollar marketplace | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_008 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Streets will be safer as autonomous cars don't get distracted or tired | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_009 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Regulation will come into place making autonomous safety case demonstrably su… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_010 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Human drivers will eventually be removed from Tesla FSD backup role | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_011 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Autonomous driver will be much safer than a human being | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_012 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Liability costs will come down industry-wide with autonomous driving | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_016 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Autonomous will remain a very large fragmented industry, like OEMs | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_018 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Fleet turnover from human-driven to autonomous will take a very long time due… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_019 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Autonomous will become a very big part of developed markets, cost curves will… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_020 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Autonomous will take a while to penetrate developing markets (70+ countries U… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_021 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Autonomous cars will make it not sensible to own your own car | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_022 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Cost per trip will come down and safety per trip will come up as autonomous p… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_023 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Autonomous is enormous opportunity for TAM expansion across mobility and deli… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 243_024 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Electric autonomous cars could be four times cheaper than owning a car (cited… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 243_025 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle dep… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |