Predictions
28 of 1,621 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FUT_024 | AI | IMO-gold-2025-underestimate-calibration | XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal… | Superforecaster Community | 5/5 | C | 100.0% | hit | 2022-01-01 – 2025-09-30 |
| AUT_017 | AI | agentic-RL-sequential-policy | Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of… | Jimmy Ba | 4/5 | C | 90.0% | hit | 2023-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| ROB_006 | AI | English-new-programming-language | 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes … | Andrej Karpathy | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2023-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| IND_013 | AI | DreamerV3-latent-imagination | General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidi… | Jimmy Ba | 4/5 | C | 88.0% | hit | 2024-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| SPC_025 | AI | 300-to-1-safety-ratio | Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities r… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 80.0% | hit | 2024-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AUT_003 | AI | vibe-coding-delegation | 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomou… | Andrej Karpathy | 5/5 | B | 94.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| SEM_008 | AI | AI-scaling | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime i… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-08-31 |
| 238_009 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2025-12-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| 229_013 | AI | AI-timing | The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 229_047 | AI | AI-timing | Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with … | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 232_014 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 235_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 238_010 | AI | AGI | AI takeoff/inflection is happening now | Emad Mostaque | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 238_072 | AI | AI-scaling | Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_006 | AI | AI-timing | Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 246_047 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| AI_005 | AI | jagged-intelligence | Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at inte… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AI_010 | AI | Slopacolypse-code-atrophy | The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the… | Andrej Karpathy | 5/5 | A | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| AI_016 | AI | AI-experience-curve-vs-Moore | The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moo… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AI_023 | AI | synthetic-CEO-clone | Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive te… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| AUT_019 | AI | GPU-rental-50-percent-spike | Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — … | Kevin Weil | 4/5 | C | 80.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| CYB_009 | AI | TPU-to-GPU-architectural-rewrite | Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewri… | David Holz | 4/5 | C | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| CYB_029 | AI | centralized-decentralized-schism | Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesse… | Anthropic | 4/5 | B | 88.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| FUT_003 | AI | extinction-risk-0.38-vs-3-percent | Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinc… | Superforecaster Community | 4/5 | B | 100.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 247_058 | AI | AI-scaling | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30 |
| 238_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 241_004 | AI | AI-timing | AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, o… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_040 | AI | AI-timing | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |