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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.62	MIRROR: Novelty-Constrained Memory-Guided MCTS Red-Teaming for Agentic RAG	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.62	ResilPhase: Plug-and-Play Phase Mapping and Noise-Resilient Macro-Trajectory Extrapolation for Diffusion Acceleration	arxiv 2026-06-25	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	ConflictScore: Identifying and Measuring How Language Models Handle Conflicting Evidence	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Transformer-Based Classification of Bacterial Raman Spectra with LOOCV	arxiv 2026-06-25	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Asymptotically Optimal Learning for Parametric Prophet Inequalities	arxiv 2026-06-25	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.62	Asymptotically Optimal Learning for Parametric Prophet Inequalities	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Reasoning Quality Emerges Early: Data Curation for Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	ProtoKV: Streaming Video Understanding under Delayed Query with Summary-State Memory	arxiv 2026-06-25	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	HyperDFlash: MHC-Aligned Block Speculative Decoding with Gated Residual Reduction	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Target-Aware Bandit Allocation for Scalable Surrogate Optimization in Chemical Space	arxiv 2026-06-25	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.62	Can Large Language Models Reliably Code Qualitative Humanitarian Data? A Benchmark Study Against Human Expert Adjudication	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.62	Mean-Field PhiBE: Continuous-Time Mean-Field Reinforcement Learning from Discrete-Time Data	arxiv 2026-06-25	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.62	Necessary but Not Sufficient: Temperature Control and Reproducibility in LLM-as-Judge Safety Evaluations	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Bridging Handheld and Teleoperated Supervision for Contact-Rich Manipulation via State-Gated Experts	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	MPC-Injection: Biasing Off-Policy Locomotion RL Toward Controller-Induced Behavior Basins	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	KRVF: A Source-Aware Semantic Voxel World Representation for Edge Mobile Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.62	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.62	Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.62	Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will STRC hit $100 by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-19	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.62	facebookresearch/momentum v0.1.111	github_release 2026-06-17	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.62	Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.62	Whose Side Is Your Agent On? Multi-Party Principal Loyalty in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.62	Inoculation Adapters: Improved Selective Generalization of Capabilities with Fewer Surprising Backdoors	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	HERO: Improving the Reliability and Sensitivity of Generative Model Evaluation Using Historical Data	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	TopoAgent: An Agentic Framework for Automated Topology Learning in Medical Imaging	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Langshaw: Declarative Interaction Protocols Based on Sayso and Conflict	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	Discovering Collaboration from Novelty: Random Network Distillation for Clustered Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Hybrid Active-Online Learning Framework for Label-Efficient Concept Drift Adaptation in Optical Network Failure Detection	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	Predictive Objectives Discard Exogenous Control-Relevant Features: A Controlled Mechanistic Study	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	I-BBS: Coordinate-Free Inference of Latent Sub-Manifolds Using Random Distance Matrix Theory	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	I-BBS: Coordinate-Free Inference of Latent Sub-Manifolds Using Random Distance Matrix Theory	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Do Models Read What They Write? Causal Registers in Scratchpad Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Chamber geometry and specification numbers of Boolean threshold functions	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	CORTEX: High-Quality Cross-Domain Organization of Web-Scale Corpora through Ontological Corpus Graph	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Not-quite-human tastes: the stylized omnivorousness of LLM survey surrogates	arxiv 2026-06-29	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	32%
0.62	Not-quite-human tastes: the stylized omnivorousness of LLM survey surrogates	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	mamabench and mamaretrieval: Benchmarks for Evaluating Medical Retrieval-Augmented Generation in Maternal, Neonatal, and Reproductive Health	arxiv 2026-06-28	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.62	Symbolic Mechanistic Data Attribution: Tracing Training Influence to Learned Behavioral Policies	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	What Naturalness Measures: Fine-Tuning and Informational Invariants in Cosmology and Dark Matter	arxiv 2026-06-29	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.62	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	16%
0.62	Policy Optimization Achieves Data-Dependent Regret Bounds in MDPs with Unknown Transitions	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	MSNN-LINet: Cross-Modal Learning via Continuous Linear Integration	arxiv 2026-06-30	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Separation Capacity of Scattering Networks	arxiv 2026-06-29	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.62	Hierarchical Global Attention (HGA)	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.62	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Croatia leading at halftime?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.62	Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.62	Will Austria score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Neural Certificate Pricing for Combinatorial Optimization Problems	arxiv 2026-07-01	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.62	Efficient Compression of Structured and Unstructured Volumes via Learned 3D Gaussian Representation	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	When Context Compensates for Sparse Event History: AlphaEarth for Spatio-Temporal Point-Process Forecasting	arxiv 2026-07-01	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.62	Seahorse: A Unified Benchmarking Framework for Spatiotemporal Event Modeling	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Function-Counting Theory for Low-Dimensional Data Structures	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	From Pixels to Temporal Correlations: Learning Informative Representations for Reinforcement Learning Pre-training	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Generative Refinement for Low-Budget Black-Box Optimization	arxiv 2026-07-01	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	Generative Refinement for Low-Budget Black-Box Optimization	arxiv 2026-07-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Optimal scaling of MCMC algorithms: exploiting the symmetry of the Metropolis-Hastings formula	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	K-Inverse-RFM: A Modified RFM that Bridges the Gap to Neural Networks for Data-Corrupted Mathematical Tasks	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Homogenization of $\ell_2$-Adversarial Training in High-Dimensions: Exact Dynamics under Stochastic Gradient Descent	arxiv 2026-06-30	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	Steal the Patch Size: Adversarially Manipulate Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-30	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	FDA ANDA202075: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — STRIDES PHARMA	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 4?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.62	Can Manifold solve this problem?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-07-03	232_058 Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.62	Can Manifold solve this problem?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-07-03	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.62	ANALOG DEVICES INC (ADI) (CIK 0000006281)	edgar_8k 2026-07-02	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.62	FDA ANDA200465: AMLODIPINE BESYLATE AND ATORVASTATIN CALCIUM (AMLODIPINE BESYLATE) — MYLAN	fda 2026-06-25	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will T1 win MSI 2026?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,500 in July?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	45%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on July 5?(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-07-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-07-03	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	LACUNA: A Testbed for Evaluating Localization Precision for LLM Unlearning	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Learning to Move Before Learning to Do: Task-Agnostic pretraining for VLAs	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Stable Self-Modulating Quantum Fast-Weight Programmers with Bounded Memory Gates	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	SkillFuzz: Fuzzing Skill Composition for Implicit Intents Discovery in Open Skill Marketplaces	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Efficient Waste Sorting for Circular Economy: A Confidence-guided comparison between One-Vs-All and One-Vs-Rest Classification Strategies with Human-in-the-Loop for Automated Waste Sorting	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg	Other	42%
0.62	Dynamic Neural Graph Encoding of Inference Processes in Deep Weight Space	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Algebraic Model Counting for Global Analysis of Optimal Decision Trees	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Hidden Forgetting in Continual Multimodal Learning: When Accuracy Survives but Grounding Fails	arxiv 2026-07-02	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	A Multi-Branch Hierarchy-Aware Framework for Heterogeneous Audio Classification	arxiv 2026-07-02	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Single-Channel EEG-Based Cognitive Load Assessment in Online Learning: A Hybrid Deep Learning Approach	arxiv 2026-07-02	AI_033 AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in merely 2 hours/day, achieving learning rates 2.3x faster than statistical models predict — freeing human educators to transition into 'Guides' focused on emotional support, ... MacKenzie Price	Education	66%
0.62	EPnG: Adaptive Expert Prune-and-Grow for Parameter-Efficient MoE Fine-tuning	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	Pmeta-TLA: Backdoor Attacks for Speech Classification Models via Meta-Learning with Timbre Leakage Attack	arxiv 2026-07-02	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.62	Dendritic In-Context Learning in a Single-Layer Spiking Neural Network	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Gaming Consensus: Coordinated Manipulation in Crowdsourced Fact-Checking	arxiv 2026-07-02	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	PARTREP: Learning What to Repeat for Decoder-only LLMs	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	MMAO-Cls: Metabolic Multi-Agent Optimization for Joint Feature Selection and Classifier Tuning	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	CoRe: Combined Rewards with Vision-Language Model Feedback for Preference-Aligned Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	A Reconfigurable Rocker-Bogie Robot for High Step Climbing and Turning	arxiv 2026-07-02	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.62	Subensemble Acceptance Method 3.0: General Corrections to Cumulants from Exact Conservation Constraints	arxiv 2026-07-02	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.62	Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	37%