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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.64	Self-Distilled Agentic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.64	A Hardware-Aware, Per-Layer Methodology for Post-Training Quantization of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	ReMIA: a Powerful and Efficient Alternative to Membership Inference Attacks against Synthetic Data Generators	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Fast Rates for Inverse Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.64	Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	ArcGate: Adaptive Arctangent Gated Activation	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	NodeSynth: Socially Aligned Synthetic Data for AI Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Analog RF Computing: A New Paradigm for Energy-Efficient Edge AI Over MU-MIMO Systems	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Minimal-Intervention KV Retention: A Design-Space Study and a Diversity-Penalty Survivor	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.64	will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-16	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Will Starship Flight 12 Achieve All Flight Goals?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-16	242_026 Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch cadence Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	38%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	FDA NDA021379: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA ANDA204741: CAPECITABINE (CAPECITABINE) — AMNEAL PHARMS	fda 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.64	FDA ANDA079204: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — TARO	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will the May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls report show fewer than 100,000 jobs added?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-16	230_015 For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). Alex Wissner-Gross	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.64	Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 19?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.64	COOPO: Cyclic Offline-Online Policy Optimization Algorithm	arxiv 2026-05-18	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.64	Pocket Foundation Models: Distilling TFMs into CPU-Ready Gradient-Boosted Trees	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Generative Adversarial Learning from Deterministic Processes	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	The Symmetries of Three-Layer ReLU Networks	arxiv 2026-05-18	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Temporal Task Diversity: Inductive Biases Under Non-Stationarity in Synthetic Sequence Modelling	arxiv 2026-05-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Concise and Logically Consistent Conformal Sets for Neuro-Symbolic Concept-Based Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Buffer-Parameterized Machine Learning Surrogate Models for Cross-Technology Signal Integrity Analysis and Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Foundation Models for Credit Risk Prediction: A Game Changer?	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Symmetry-Compatible Principle for Optimizer Design: Embeddings, LM Heads, SwiGLU MLPs, and MoE Routers	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Protection Is (Nearly) All You Need: Structural Protection Dominates Scoring in Globally Capped KV Eviction	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Interaction-Breaking Adversarial Learning Framework for Robust Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Interaction-Breaking Adversarial Learning Framework for Robust Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	HydroAgent: Closing the Gap Between Frontier LLMs and Human Experts in Hydrologic Model Calibration via Simulator-Grounded RL	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.64	Feature Learning in Linear-Width Two-Layer Networks: Two vs. One Step of Gradient Descent	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Feature Learning in Linear-Width Two-Layer Networks: Two vs. One Step of Gradient Descent	arxiv 2026-05-18	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	Feature Learning in Linear-Width Two-Layer Networks: Two vs. One Step of Gradient Descent	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.64	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Will XRP reach $1.60 in May?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.64	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	241_015 Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning Eric Schmidt	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	What will Australia's total net overseas migration be for FY 25/26?	manifold 2026-05-29	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.64	Will any nobel laureate donate their brain to https://bexorg.com/ by eoy2039?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-28	240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.64	GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-26	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.64	Locally Coherent, Globally Incoherent: Bounding Compositional Incoherence in Multi-Component LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Reasoning with Sampling: Cutting at Decision Points	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Unifying Temporal and Structural Credit Assignment in LLM-Based Multi-Agent Prompt Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.64	Conformal Certification of Reasoning Trace Prefixes	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Hijacking Agent Memory: Stealthy Trojan Attacks Through Conversational Interaction	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	From XXLTraffic to EvoXXLTraffic: Scaling Traffic Forecasting to Sensor-Evolving Networks	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.64	Uncertainty-Aware Transfer Learning for Cross-Building Energy Forecasting: Toward Robust and Scalable District-Level Energy Management	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	The Curse of Helpfulness: Inverse Scaling Law in Robustness to Distractor Instructions via DistractionIF	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	AnyMo: Scaling Any-Modality Conditional Motion Generation with Masked Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.64	TriSearch: Learning to Optimize Triangulations via Bistellar Flips	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Mean-Field Diffuser: Scaling Offline MARL to Thousands of Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Ridge Regression from Poisson Resetting: A Renewal Perspective on Spectral Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	From Short Histories to Long Futures: Horizon-Aware Graph Neural Networks for Long Horizon Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.64	Reducing Experimental Testing in Space Propulsion Film Cooling Analyses by Pixelwise Generative Image Interpolation	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.64	Reasoning-preserved Efficient Distillation of Large Language Models via Activation-aware Initialization	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	HTAM: Hierarchical Transition-Attended Memory for Operator Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Beyond English and Evasion: A Human-Annotated Multi-Domain Benchmark for High-Stakes LLM Safety Evaluation in Chinese	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Beyond Bilingual Transfer: Multilingual Code-Switching in Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	SURGENT: A Surgical Multi-Agent Assistance System Across the Perioperative Workflow	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	SURGENT: A Surgical Multi-Agent Assistance System Across the Perioperative Workflow	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	RUBRIC-ARROW: Alternating Pointwise Rubric Reward Modeling for LLM Post-training in Non-verifiable Domains	arxiv 2026-05-27	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	FLIP: Real-Time and Resilient Formation Planning for Large-Scale DIstributed Swarms via Point Cloud Registration	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.64	FDA NDA214275: UPTRAVI (SELEXIPAG) — ACTELION	fda 2026-05-23	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 2?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	FDA ANDA217552: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7?(market prob: 58%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3?(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-02	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.64	Permissive Safety Through Trusted Inference: Verifiable Belief-Space Neural Safety Filters for Assured Interactive Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	"I've Seen How This Goes": Characterizing Diversity via Progressive Conditional Surprise	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	"I've Seen How This Goes": Characterizing Diversity via Progressive Conditional Surprise	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Off-the-Shelf LLMs as Process Scorers: Training-Free Alternative to PRMs for Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	ReSkill: Reconciling Skill Creation with Policy Optimization in Agentic RL	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	TRON: Targeted Rule-Verifiable Online Environments for Visual Reasoning RL	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Investigating and Alleviating Harm Amplification in LLM Interactions	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.64	Why Are DMD Students Lazy? Understanding the Copying Behavior in Few-Step Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Edge-aware Decoding for Neural Asymmetric Routing	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Site4Drug: Predicting Drug-Binding Target Sites with an AI Agent	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	Rethinking the Role of Positional Encoding: Sliding-Window Transformers without PE Remain Turing Complete	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Rethinking the Role of Positional Encoding: Sliding-Window Transformers without PE Remain Turing Complete	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	K-BrowseComp: A Web Browsing Agent Benchmark Grounded in Korean Contexts	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	CRAB-Bench: Evaluating LLM Agents under Complex Task Dependencies and Human-aligned User Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Benchmarking LLM-as-a-Judge for Long-Form Output Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.64	Agentic Clustering: Controllable Text Taxonomies via Multi-Agent Refinement	arxiv 2026-05-31	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Detection vs. Execution: Single-Bucket Probes Miss Half the Mamba-2 State Sink	arxiv 2026-05-30	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.64	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.64	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-03	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Gold price above 5,100.00 in June 2026(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-04	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%