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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.65	FloatDoor: Platform-Triggered Backdoors in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.65	Insulin4RL: Real-Time Insulin Management in the Intensive Care Unit for Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.65	Self-Preference Is Weak or Absent in Verifiable Instruction-Following Revision: A Four-Model Test Under Genuine Authorship	arxiv 2026-06-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	AtomMem: Building Simple and Effective Memory System for LLM Agents via Atomic Facts	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_046 Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes of DRAM demand by 2027 — up to 77% of global supply. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	56%
0.65	TerraMARS: A Domain-Adapted Small-Language-Model Pipeline for Mars Terraforming Literature	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	MemoryWAM: Efficient World Action Modeling with Persistent Memory	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Generating Robot Hands from Human Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Stable Transformer-Actor-Critic Model Predictive Control: A Contraction Analysis Approach	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	SCAN-Planner: Spatial Collision-Aware Local Planning for Route-Guided Long-Range Quadruped Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.65	Who will be the first Artemis astronaut to set foot on the Moon?	manifold 2026-06-23	242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis	Space	56%
0.65	Who will be the first Artemis astronaut to set foot on the Moon?	manifold 2026-06-23	246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis	Space	42%
0.65	Abstract representational geometry supports inference in large language models	arxiv 2026-06-22	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.65	GIF: Locally Sound Geometric Information Flow Control for LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	The Correct Answer Trap: Pedagogically-Grounded Detection and Feedback for Hidden Misconceptions	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	AI-Empowered UAV-Assisted Backscatter Localization and ISAC for Zero-Energy IoT: A Comprehensive Survey	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	Self-Evolution for Multi-Turn Tool-Calling Agents via Divergence-Point Preference Learning	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.65	EvoRubrics: Dynamic Rubrics as Rewards via Adversarial Co-Evolution for LLM Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	When Preferences Fail to Become Incentives: A Utility-Behavior Gap in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Measuring Behavior Portability in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	A Formula-Driven Survey and Research Agenda for On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Confident but Conflicted: Internal Uncertainty and Cognitive Dissonance Resolution in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-21	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Confident but Conflicted: Internal Uncertainty and Cognitive Dissonance Resolution in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-21	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	Look Light, Think Heavy: What Multimodal Chain-of-Thought Reasoning Can and Cannot Do	arxiv 2026-06-21	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.65	Training-Free Semantic Correction for Autoregressive Visual Models	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	CASPER in the Machine: Insights into Character Variety in LLM-Generated Stories	arxiv 2026-06-21	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Neural Networks as Linear Regression: An Introduction for Statisticians	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	Substitution-Based Analysis of Structural Novelty for Generative Models of Materials	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	The Fractal Neural Operator: Overcoming Spectral Bias in Chaotic Attractors via Prime-Harmonic Weierstrass Encodings	arxiv 2026-06-22	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Counterfactual learning of new adaptive instructional policies using logged data	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	Detecting and Understanding Vulnerabilities in Fully Homomorphic Encryption Frameworks	arxiv 2026-06-21	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.65	Detecting and Understanding Vulnerabilities in Fully Homomorphic Encryption Frameworks	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Towards Root Memories: Benchmarking and Enhancing Implicit Logical Memory Retrieval for Personalized LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	LIBERO-Safety: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Physical and Semantic Safety in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.65	Assistron: Bayesian Shared Autonomy with Off-the-shelf Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	A Vendor-Agnostic LiDAR Data Conversion System with Multi-Signal Detection and Multi-Format Output	arxiv 2026-06-22	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.65	HiL-ResRL: A Model-Agnostic Finetuning Adapter via Human-in-the-loop Residual Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-22	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.65	Scalable Multi-Task Data Generation via Reinforcement Learning for Language-Conditioned Bimanual Dexterous Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	Will NATO cease to exist before 2030?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-24	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.65	DeepBD: A Grounded Agentic Workflow for Variant Prioritization and Diagnosis of Genetic Birth Defects	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.65	Entity Resolution via Batched Oracle Queries	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Offline Reinforcement Learning for Warehouse SLAM Throughput Control	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	Extended pseudo-spectral physics-informed neural networks for phase-field models	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Same Lesson, Different Story: Cross-Lingual Reconstruction of Cultural Narratives in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Cross-Lingual Exploration for Parametric Knowledge	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	ArtiTwinSplat: Interactable Digital Twin Reconstruction via Gaussian Splatting from RGB-D videos	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	FT-WBC: Learning Fault-Tolerant Whole-Body Control for Legged Loco-Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-23	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	FORCE: Efficient VLA Reinforcement Fine-Tuning via Value-Calibrated Warm-up and Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Gradient-based inverse lithography for EUV masks via the waveguide method and a physics-informed neural operator	arxiv 2026-06-24	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.65	Reasonable Motion: A General ASP Foundation for Environment Constrained Movement Trajectory Computation	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.65	Reclaim Evaluation: A Lossy Memory Is Worse Than an Empty One	arxiv 2026-06-24	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	FactorLibrary: From Polynomials to Circuits via Recursive Subgoals	arxiv 2026-06-24	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	What Actually Works for Spacecraft Fault-Tolerant Control: An Honest Settled-Gate Benchmark of Learned and Classical Methods	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	What Actually Works for Spacecraft Fault-Tolerant Control: An Honest Settled-Gate Benchmark of Learned and Classical Methods	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Compositional Behavioral Semantics for State Abstraction in Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	To Isolate or to Score? Model-Adaptive Assessment for Cost-Efficient Multi-Agent RAG	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Transferability for General Reasoning: An Automated Curriculum for Multi-Domain RLVR	arxiv 2026-06-23	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.65	Elo-Disentangled Player-Style Embeddings for Human Chess via Rating-Conditioned Residual Move Model	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Reward-Conditioned Attention: How Reward Design Shapes What Autonomous Driving Agents See	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Do vision-language models search like humans? Reasoning tokens as a reaction-time analog in classic visual-search paradigms	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	ExTra: Exploratory Trajectory Optimization for Language Model Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.65	ExTra: Exploratory Trajectory Optimization for Language Model Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	RAS: Measuring LLM Safety Through Refusal Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Learning Subset-Shared Invariances for Domain Generalization with Mixture-of-Experts	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Interpretable Keystroke Biomarkers in Parkinson's Disease	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Deep Reinforcement Learning-Enhanced Event-Triggered Data-Driven Predictive Control for a 3D Cable-Driven Soft Robotic Arm	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	DSP-SLAM++: A Unified Framework for Multi-Class, High-Fidelity Object SLAM in the Wild	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Learning Perceptive Platform Adaptive Locomotion Controllers for Quadrupedal Robots	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	SwarmFly: A simulation platform for UAV swarm experiment design and validation	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.65	Tesla reaches $400 before $300?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-04-25	ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk	Robotics	18%
0.65	Will warfare robots kill multitudes in a city?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-25	246_049 Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	24%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 29?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	amazon chipmaker sell trainium ai chips nvidia 2026 4	gdelt 2026-04-30	CYB_018 Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — backed by concentrated collective capital of the AI hardware-software industry (Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI), signaling industry-wide belief that humanoid r... Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.65	20260429001332	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.65	Which Rocket Launches Next? III	manifold 2026-04-30	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.65	Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of May 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.65	S&P500 closes at 7,500.00 before End Of May 2026?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley	Energy	56%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 6?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-05	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.65	FDA ANDA210275: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — MYLAN	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	FDA ANDA205035: TRANEXAMIC ACID (TRANEXAMIC ACID) — EUGIA PHARMA	fda 2026-04-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.84.0	github_release 2026-02-25	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.77.1	github_release 2026-02-03	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.65	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.0	github_release 2022-03-10	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.65	meta-llama/llama-models v0.1.3	github_release 2025-02-14	242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.0-rc0	github_release 2024-06-18	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.65	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	SEM_040 Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. Michael Saylor	Finance/Crypto	48%
0.65	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%