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83,930 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 154 of 438, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.62 | Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.62 | Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will England win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 82%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.61 | Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.61 | Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.61 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.61 | Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.61 | Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?(market prob: 85%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.61 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.61 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 230_010 Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2025-11-05 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.61 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5)(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?(market prob: 79%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.61 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.61 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-29 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.61 | Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-29 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.61 | Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.61 | Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.61 | Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 26% | |
| 0.61 | Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.61 | Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.61 | Will CDT RealOruro win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.61 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.61 | Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 7?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-08?(market prob: 85%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.61 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.61 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% |