Validations Queue
103,108 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 357 of 1911, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.66 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 3?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.66 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 2?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.66 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 3?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.66 | Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 232_046 SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. Elon Musk | Space | 32% | ||
| 0.66 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-06-30 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-06-30 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-06-30 | 246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-06-30 | AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.66 | Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.66 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.66 | Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.66 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 3?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-07-01 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-07-01 | 235_036 AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 51% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-07-01 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-07-01 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-07-01 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-06-30 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-08-07 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.66 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-07-24 | 240_030 Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 35% | |
| 0.66 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.66 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 37% | |
| 0.66 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-02-13 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch | Space | 70% | |
| 0.66 | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | ||
| 0.66 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 1?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.66 | Will I deploy my business website by the end of April 2026?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.66 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.66 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.66 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Kamala announce a run in 2028(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.66 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 4?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.66 | Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 25% | |
| 0.66 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-01-09 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.66 | Bitcoin $65K in May?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.66 | Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch | Space | 70% |