Predictions
27 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 241_005 | AI | AI-scaling | 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_031 | AI | AI-timing | Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_046 | AI | AI-timing | Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_050 | AI | autonomous | AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new sol… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 241_053 | AI | NVIDIA | AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 241_062 | AI | AI-timing | Best AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment) | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 238_007 | AI | AI-scaling | There will be no more than ~10 foundation model labs globally, but thousands … | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-11-30 |
| 232_018 | AI | AI-timing | We are living through a moment that will be in history for thousands of years… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_013 | AI | AI-scaling | Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_019 | AI | AI-timing | AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_032 | AI | AI-timing | World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scale | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_033 | AI | AI-timing | Few frontier AI companies will be in China | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_034 | AI | AI-timing | One or two frontier AI companies in Europe | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_035 | AI | AI-timing | Maybe one frontier AI company in India | Eric Schmidt | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_036 | AI | AI-timing | No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_037 | AI | AI-timing | Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_038 | AI | AGI | Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_040 | AI | AI-timing | A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_041 | AI | AI-timing | Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_045 | AI | AI-scaling | Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_049 | AI | AI-timing | Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_051 | AI | AI-timing | AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science does… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| 241_039 | AI | AI-timing | In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 241_008 | AI | AI-scaling | AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially mill… | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_017 | AI | AI-timing | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 241_001 | AI | AI-timing | We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AI | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |