Predictions
319 of 1,607 predictions match — page 2 of 7. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 240_029 | AI | AI-scaling | ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buil… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 240_032 | AI | AI-timing | PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few y… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 240_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the ne… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 241_005 | AI | AI-scaling | 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_031 | AI | AI-timing | Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_046 | AI | AI-timing | Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_050 | AI | autonomous | AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new sol… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 241_053 | AI | NVIDIA | AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 241_062 | AI | AI-timing | Best AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment) | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 242_010 | AI | AI-scaling | By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new m… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 246_021 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 246_022 | AI | AI-scaling | Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). | PolyMarket | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 246_023 | AI | AI-timing | Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. | PolyMarket | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 246_025 | AI | AI-timing | Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). | Sam Altman | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 246_026 | AI | AI-timing | In next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Alt… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 246_037 | AI | NVIDIA | 50% of US data centers delayed, only 33% being built (due to chip/electrical … | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_051 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_052 | AI | AI-scaling | Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_001 | AI | $100T | xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_006 | AI | AI-timing | Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 247_008 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 247_009 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 247_028 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_046 | AI | AI-timing | AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_057 | AI | AI-scaling | Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 248_008 | AI | AI-timing | Jack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year. | Jack Dorsey | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 248_011 | AI | AI-scaling | Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon th… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| AI_002 | AI | country-of-geniuses-datacenter | Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses i… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| AI_004 | AI | smarter-than-smartest-human | AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automat… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| AUT_009 | AI | Powerful-AI-nation-of-geniuses | 'Powerful AI' (functional AGI) arrives 2026-2027 — data centers house a 'nati… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| AUT_024 | AI | massive-AI-breakthrough-H1-2026 | H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented conc… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| CMQ_001 | AI | AGI-capability-roadmap | By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual intern… | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| CMQ_004 | AI | AGI-capability-roadmap | AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professio… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| CMQ_005 | AI | software-automation | AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 68.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| CMQ_009 | AI | AGI-realism | Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is '… | Demis Hassabis | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| CMQ_010 | AI | AGI-definition | True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class … | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| CMQ_011 | AI | AI-alignment | AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEF… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| CMQ_022 | AI | superintelligence | AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw c… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| CMQ_047 | AI | autonomous-agents | Autonomous code agents and AutoResearch systems will close the loop on comple… | Andrej Karpathy | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| FUT_021 | AI | physical-friction-governor-on-ASI | Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted ph… | Superforecaster Community | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| INF_009 | AI | organoid-computing | The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_042 | AI | AI-scaling | Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, ac… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_044 | AI | humanoids | Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 234_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_007 | AI | AI-timing | Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI | Kevin Weil | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_016 | AI | $100T | Enterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capex | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_044 | AI | AI-timing | Intelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQ | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-08-31 |
| 234_047 | AI | AI-scaling | Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |