Validations Queue
78,110 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 74 of 168, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.61 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-03 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-02 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-02 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.61 | Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.61 | Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.61 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-06 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-06 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.61 | Will this market appear on a mug?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.61 | Will I break a bone before the end of 2027?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | |
| 0.61 | Bitcoin $83k in May?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.61 | Will SPY be above 720.65 on market close May 8th?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 240_051 After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 42% | ||
| 0.61 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 48% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.61 | Will SPY close above $750 on Friday, May 15, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-14 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.61 | will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.61 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Litecoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.61 | Will TSLA close below $400 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.61 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.61 | manifold 2026-05-29 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | ||
| 0.61 | Will Kalshi be operational and legal in the US on January 1, 2030?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.61 | Will GTA VI sell more than 50 million copies by the end of 2027?(market prob: 91%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | |
| 0.61 | Rcb vs gt who is win(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.61 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Starmer out before August?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.61 | New elected president of Iran before EOM May 2027?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.61 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.61 | Will I comment on this market? [Creator won't bet](market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% |