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114,087 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 453 of 607, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 238_059 Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 42% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 2.5(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will Matt Olson win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 56% | |
| 0.57 | New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.57 | Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will FC Sheriff Tiraspol win on 2026-07-09?(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will FC Sheriff Tiraspol win on 2026-07-09?(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Morocco?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Newport: Daniil Glinka vs Yunchaokete Bu(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier B: Norway vs Hungary(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Pistons (-10.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-08 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Netanyahu out by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-17 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Canadiens vs. Lightning(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Pistons (-9.5)(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 29% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Utah(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% |