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95,758 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 293 of 504, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 | New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.59 | Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Croatia leading at halftime?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.59 | Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-11-18 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will Marcus Semien win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.59 | Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.59 | Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.59 | Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will Iraq be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 2 Australia?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 61% | |
| 0.59 | New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Uruguay (-2.5)(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-02-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-02-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Brazil (-2.5)(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.59 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.59 | Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-01-07 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.59 | Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.59 | Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 1.5(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | SPC_006 Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual revenues exceeding $20 billion — internal cash flow essentially eliminates SpaceX's requirement for public market capital and funds high-risk developme... SpaceX | Space | 88% | |
| 0.58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Netanyahu out by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-17 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-12-10 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% |