Validations Queue
89,667 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 204 of 454, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | GTA VI released before June 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-05-02 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2025-10-15 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.60 | Will Delhi Capitals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-24 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-03-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Solana dip to $60 in May?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Solana dip to $70 in May?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will Solana dip to $70 in May?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.60 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.60 | Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.60 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will Thunder downunder win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | |
| 0.60 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | ||
| 0.60 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.60 | Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.60 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.60 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.60 | Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Starmer out by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2025-12-22 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will FC Universitario win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Solana reach $160 in June?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-01-13 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.60 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Will Solana dip to $60 in June?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.60 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.60 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.60 | Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 6?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% |