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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.63	Pigeonholing: Bad prompts hurt models to collapse and make mistakes	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	Neural Network-Based Parametric Model Reduction for Predicting Turbulent Flow for Different Vehicle Geometries	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	OmniPath: A Multi-Modal Agentic Framework for Auditing Wheelchair Accessibility	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Selective Capability Unlearning in End-to-End Spoken Language Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	RAVEN: A Regime-Aware Variable-context Expert Network for Financial Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	RASC+: Retrieval-Constrained LLM Adjudication for Clinical Value Set Authoring	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	From Task-Guided Conversational Graphs to Goal-Oriented Dialogue Runtimes	arxiv 2026-06-22	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.63	AsyncOPD: How Stale Can On-Policy Distillation Be?	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	MinInter: Minimizing Trajectory Interpolation During Data Augmentation for Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	PanoVine: Whole-Body Visuomotor Control for Soft Growing Vine Robot	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	SpeechEQ: Benchmarking Emotional Intelligence Quotient in Socially Aware Voice Conversational Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.63	Is GraphRAG Needed? From Basic RAG to Graph-/Agentic Solutions with Context Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	C3-Bench: A Context-Aware Change Captioning Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Beyond Visual Forensics: Auditing Multimodal Robustness for Synthetic Medical Image Detection	arxiv 2026-06-24	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.63	Sarashina2.2-TTS: Tackling Kanji Polyphony in Japanese Speech Generation via Data Scaling and Targeted Data Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.63	What Intermediate Layers Know: Detecting Jailbreaks from Entropy Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	BCoughBench: Benchmarking Respiratory Acoustic Foundation Models Under Body-Coupled Wearable Sensor Conditions	arxiv 2026-06-23	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.63	GCT-MARL: Graph-Based Contrastive Transfer for Sample-Efficient Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Internal Data Repetition Destroys Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.63	RevengeBench: Reverse Engineering Code-Space Policies from Behavioral Experiments	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	ROAD-VLA: Robust Online Adaptation via Self-Distillation for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Two-dimensional Hyperbolic RNN Neural Quantum State	arxiv 2026-06-24	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Low Variance Trust Region Optimization with Independent Actors and Sequential Updates in Cooperative Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Causal-rCM: A Unified Teacher-Forcing and Self-Forcing Open Recipe for Autoregressive Diffusion Distillation in Streaming Video Generation and Interactive World Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	The Generalization Spectrum: A Chromatographic Approach to Evaluating Learning Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	Why Do Accumulated Transformations Extrapolate?	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Swarm-Inspired Generation of Collective Behaviors in Graph Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.63	AI translation of literary texts is "fine", but readers still prefer human translations	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Emcar: Embodied Controller for Animating Robots	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_017 NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... Jensen Huang	Semis	75%
0.63	Stage-Aware and Roughness-Constrained Diffusion Policy for Multi-Stage Robotic Polishing	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Large-Scale Tunnel Air--Ground Collaboration With FLISP: Fast LiDAR-IMU Synchronized Path Planne	arxiv 2026-06-24	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.63	Commerge: Communication-Efficient, Robust, and Fast LiDAR Map Merging Framework for Multi-Robot Coordination in Resource-Constrained Scenarios	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.63	WaveForward: An Omnidirectional Passive Wheeled Quadruped Robot with Casters	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.63	Swazure: Swarm Measurement of Pose for Flying Light Specks	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	BFMTrack: Latent Sequence Optimization for Physics-Based Motion Tracking with Behavioral Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.63	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Will Cowork be added to the Claude iOS app on June 26, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-26	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.63	Learning to Fold: prizewinning solution at LeHome Challenge 2026 (1st place online, 2nd offline)	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Heavy-Ball Q-Learning with Residual Weighting Correction	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Inherited Circuits, Learned Semantics: How Fine-Tuning Creates Evasion Vulnerabilities Invisible to Standard Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Confidence-Aware Tool Orchestration for Robust Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-25	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.63	SamaVaani: Auditing and Debiasing Multilingual Clinical ASR for Indian Languages	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.63	MLFFM-SegDiff: A Multi-Level Feature Fusion Diffusion Model for Skin Lesion Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-25	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	From Hallucination to Grounding: Diagnosing Visual Spatial Intelligence via CRISP	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Multipath Adaptive Gated Bottleneck Latent ODE with Raman Data Fusion for Cell Culture Process Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.63	NeuraDock Visual Cognitive Load Agent Tutorial: A Quality-Gated Open-Source EEG Workflow for Alpha Dynamics and Real-Time Applications	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_017 NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... Jensen Huang	Semis	75%
0.63	Geometry-Aware MCTS for Extremal Problems in Combinatorial Geometry	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	What We are Missing in Multimodal LLM Evaluation?	arxiv 2026-06-24	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.63	What We are Missing in Multimodal LLM Evaluation?	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	RolloutPipe: Overlapping Pipelined Rollout and Training in Disaggregated On-Policy LLM Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.63	Erase-then-Delta Attention: Decoupling Erase and Write Addresses in Delta-Rule Linear Attention	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	The Generalization Spectrum: A Chromatographic Approach to Evaluating Learning Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	Bridging Handheld and Teleoperated Supervision for Contact-Rich Manipulation via State-Gated Experts	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	GRAINS: Storage-Aware Algorithm-Architecture Co-Design Enabling High-Performance and Low-Cost Graph-Based Genome Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 28?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-19	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.63	Will I work 9/9/6 for the rest of 2026?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-06-29	SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.63	How much VRAM will the RTX 6090 have?	manifold 2026-06-29	SEM_029 Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training. Nvidia	Semis/Products	79%
0.63	Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE) (CIK 0001706946)	edgar_8k 2026-06-29	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 30?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-30	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.63	Using Large Language Models as Low-Cost Statistical Estimators for Human-Response Data	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Defending Against Harmful Supervision Hidden in Benign Samples	arxiv 2026-06-29	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	TopoAgent: An Agentic Framework for Automated Topology Learning in Medical Imaging	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	ScAle: Attention Head Scaling as a Minimal Adapter for Spatial Reasoning in Vision Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-28	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.63	A Hybrid Framework For Crypto-Ransomware Detection In Enterprise Shared Storage	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.63	Attractor States Emerge in Multi-Turn LLM Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Curvature-Weighted Gradient Diversity: A Noise Measure for Geometry-Adaptive SGD Schedules	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Your Data Manifold is Secretly a Reward Model: Shell-LCC for Text-to-Video Generation	arxiv 2026-06-29	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Improved Predictive Performance and Interpretability for Mesomorphic Neural Networks Using Local Fidelity Regularization	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Decision-Value Attribution in Predict-then-Optimize Systems	arxiv 2026-06-29	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	The Forgetting-Retention Dilemma: Certified Unlearning Theory in Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	MemLeak: Diagnosing Information Leaks in Multimodal Agent Memory	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	MaDI-Bench: An End-to-End Data Integration Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_002 Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enterprise reality involves significant operational friction — the 'integration schlep' — characterized by legacy software incompatibilities, rigid corporate bureaucracies, and per... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Macro/Economy	85%
0.63	SurrogateShield: Beyond Redaction for High-Utility, Privacy-Preserving LLM Interactions	arxiv 2026-06-28	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	MIThinker: A Plug-and-Play Policy-Optimized Thinker For Motivational Interviewing Counseling	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Chronos: A Physics-Informed Full-History Framework for Non-Markovian Long-Horizon Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	KYON: Semi-Modular Wheel-Legged Quadruped With Agile Bimanual Capability	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Lateral String Stability for Vehicle Platoons	arxiv 2026-06-29	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.63	CORE: Common Outcome Regularities from Action-Free Visual Demonstrations for Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	MTD-Map: Single-Stage Long-Term LiDAR Map Maintenance Framework via Mixture Transition Distribution	arxiv 2026-06-28	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Over $20M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	PolicyGuard: From Organizational Policies to Neuro-SymbolicCompliance Review Engines	arxiv 2026-06-30	AI_037 EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers. Daniella Amodei	Geopolitics	60%
0.63	Introduction to Stochastic Differential Equations for Generative Machine Learning: A Variational Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-30	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.63	Introduction to Stochastic Differential Equations for Generative Machine Learning: A Variational Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Surprise as a Signal for Plasticity and Metacognition	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Mixture-of-Control: State-Aware Fine-Tuning for Transformer-based Models	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	CSO-LLM: Class Subspace Orthogonalization for Post-Training Backdoor Detection and Trigger Inversion in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-30	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%