Predictions
1,182 of 1,664 predictions match — page 24 of 24. Click any row to view its detail.
Filters
Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 244_029 | Energy | AI-timing | Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2046-01-01 – 2046-10-31 |
| CMQ_060 | Crypto | BTC-long-term-price | Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented pol… | Michael Saylor | 5/5 | A | 20.0% | pending | 2046-01-01 – 2046-12-31 |
| FUT_011 | Energy | solar-sub-cent-per-kWh-2050 | By 2050: solar PV generation costs plunge below 0.5 cents per kWh in optimal … | Ramez Naam | 5/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2050-01-01 – 2050-11-30 |
| SPC_010 | Space | Mars-self-sustaining-1M-2050 | Establishment of a self-sustaining city on Mars populated by 1 million people… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 8.0% | pending | 2050-01-01 – 2050-11-30 |
| 230_020 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2063-06-01 – 2063-06-30 |
| 230_024 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-scaling | Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity esca… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2063-06-01 – 2063-06-30 |
| 233_015 | Biotech/Longevity | synbio | Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2070-06-01 – 2070-06-30 |
| 235_040 | Space | orbital-AI | Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless o… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2070-06-01 – 2070-06-30 |
| 236_010 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | 5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next day | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | — – — |
| 238_031 | Other | AI-timing | Future is unpredictable beyond three weeks in the AI era | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | — – — |
| 238_050 | Other | AI-timing | Sci-fi tropes (warp drive, teleportation, time travel) are not yet achieved; … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | — – — |
| 238_057 | Macro/Economy | abundance | Laws of economics and thermodynamics will still apply despite AI abundance | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | — – — |
| 238_069 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive na… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | — – — |
| 239_017 | Other | AGI | Future is 80%+ likely to be great | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | — – — |
| 239_026 | Other | AGI | Future will be very entertaining | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | — – — |
| 240_023 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | 45% of dementia cases are entirely preventable | Dr. Don Mucalem | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | — – — |
| 240_052 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | — – — |
| 243_046 | Consumer | AI-timing | When Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantly | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | — – — |
| 244_008 | Other | AI-timing | If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | — – — |
| 244_014 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | AV is an industry where Chinese players have a lot to offer | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | — – — |
| 244_021 | Media/Ads | AI-timing | AI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humans | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | — – — |
| 244_030 | Other | AI-timing | Physical world tech adoption always takes longer than digital world | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | — – — |
| 244_034 | Other | AI-timing | Companies get more conservative as they grow, but should do opposite | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | — – — |
| 245_004 | Consumer | $100T | EY estimates the extinct-species educational/consumer market at $1.7 trillion… | EY (Ernst & Young) | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | — – — |
| 245_023 | Biotech/Longevity | $100T | Colossal considers de-extinction and species preservation a $10 trillion oppo… | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | — – — |
| 245_031 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech … | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | — – — |
| 245_032 | Other | AI-timing | Anti-GMO perception of reintroduced Tasmanian tiger requires government educa… | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | — – — |
| 245_034 | Other | AI-timing | Wolves will not attack modern cattle due to current cattle-raising methods | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | — – — |
| 245_039 | Biotech/Longevity | synbio | Colossal has not yet started work on dinosaurs, corals, dragons or Pokemon | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | — – — |
| 247_014 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Politicization of AI could have been delayed by at least 2 years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | — – — |
| 247_037 | Crypto | crypto | Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) | Michael Saylor | 5/5 | C | 62.0% | pending | — – — |
| 247_039 | Crypto | AI-scaling | Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | — – — |