Predictions
1,178 of 1,660 predictions match — page 17 of 24. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 241_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science does… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| 241_014 | AI | AI-timing | The world a year from today will be nothing like the world today | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 241_039 | AI | AI-timing | In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 242_011 | AI | AI-scaling | New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, man… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2033-09-30 |
| 243_028 | Auto/Transport | jobs | Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) | Dara Khosrowshahi | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 245_024 | Biotech/Longevity | synbio | Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds) | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 245_028 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-scaling | Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the… | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 246_011 | AI | AI-scaling | Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 246_012 | Space | orbital-AI | Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 247_007 | AI | $100T | Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 247_060 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed … | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 248_006 | AI | AI-scaling | The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 248_017 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Coding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commo… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| AI_008 | AI | superintelligence-2030 | Once 2027 AGI arrives (AI researchers capable of autonomous research), the in… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 28.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| AI_011 | Labor/Jobs | programmers-replaced | The vast majority of human programmers will be entirely replaced by AI within… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | A | 20.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| AI_015 | AI | Last-Economy-decentralization | Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will fo… | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2032-08-31 |
| AI_020 | Space | Vera-Rubin-Space-Module | NVIDIA will launch a 'space computing' push via the specialized Vera Rubin Sp… | NVIDIA | 3/5 | C | 38.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| AI_024 | Consumer | face-to-face-economy-rebound | As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive econo… | Mark Cuban | 4/5 | B | 58.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |
| AI_025 | AI | GenAI-wrappers-RadioShack | Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the b… | Mark Cuban | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| AI_026 | Macro/Economy | demonetization-human-capital | AI is executing a catastrophic repricing of legacy software stocks and a tota… | Michael Saylor | 5/5 | B | 35.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| AI_027 | Crypto | AI-agents-Bitcoin-native | Autonomous AI agents cannot function efficiently on legacy slow-moving fiat b… | Michael Saylor | 4/5 | C | 30.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |
| AI_036 | AI | RLHF-fails-superintelligence | Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically … | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| AUT_027 | Biotech/Longevity | Longevity-Escape-Velocity-2027 | Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics … | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 22.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2035-09-30 |
| CMQ_007 | AI | corporate-revenue | Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| CMQ_012 | AI | AGI-timeline | AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| CMQ_016 | AI | intelligence-explosion | Post-AGI (2027+), a decade of human-led algorithmic progress will be compress… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| CMQ_018 | Geopolitics | AGI-governance | By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 4/5 | A | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| COD_SPC_001 | Space | Artemis-replan | Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a … | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 62.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| CYB_016 | Other | agentic-rural-agriculture | Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production… | Peter Dannenberg | 3/5 | C | 42.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |
| CYB_023 | Crypto | Bitcoin-AI-ground-truth | Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be … | Michael Saylor | 5/5 | C | 32.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |
| CYB_027 | AI | orthogonality-thesis | Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomabl… | Nick Bostrom | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| CYB_030 | Space | space-compute-heat-dissipation | Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Ru… | Jensen Huang | 4/5 | B | 35.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_001 | AI | GPU-deployment | Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GP… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| INF_002 | Geopolitics | AGI-national-security | By 2027-2028, the US national-security apparatus will effectively appropriate… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_007 | AI | OpenAI-compute-dominance | OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| INF_018 | Space | orbital-DCs | SpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 s… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| INF_028 | Labor/Jobs | white-collar-automation | AI will render approximately 99% of white-collar jobs replaceable within two … | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | C | 15.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| INF_038 | Labor/Jobs | UHI-social-unrest | The transition to Universal High Income (UHI) necessitated by AI-driven labor… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| INF_042 | Macro/Economy | shortage-to-oversupply | Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pat… | Marc Andreessen | 4/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |
| ROB_001 | AI | runaway-superintelligence-recursive | If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 … | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 22.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| ROB_004 | AI | solve-physics-unification | By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve… | Demis Hassabis | 5/5 | A | 8.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| ROB_005 | Robotics | physical-intelligence-AGI-prerequisite | True AGI requires 'physical intelligence' — an AGI system must be able to con… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| ROB_027 | AI | paperclip-maximizer-revisited | The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence co… | Nick Bostrom | 4/5 | C | 35.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| SPC_007 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX-Tesla-reverse-merger | SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company wil… | Chamath Palihapitiya | 4/5 | B | 15.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| SPC_012 | Space | SpaceX-orbital-refueling-2027 | SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical pr… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 230_003 | AI | AI-scaling | AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely re… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_006 | AI | AI-scaling | The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an al… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_012 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivit… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_042 | AI | AI-timing | A pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'li… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |