Predictions

69 of 1,621 predictions match — page 1 of 2. Click any row to view its detail.

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IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
INF_016Energypower-as-binding-constraintPower generation is the 'innermost loop' and absolute limiting factor on AI e…Elon Musk5/5A85.0%in_progress2025-01-01 – 2030-10-31
INF_073AIAI-smarter-than-humanity-2030AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smar…Elon Musk4/5A30.0%pending2025-01-01 – 2031-08-31
SEM_038AI/AGIsuperintelligenceDigital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as…Elon Musk4/5A12.0%pending2025-01-01 – 2026-12-31
230_009Macro/EconomyeconomyUS GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.Elon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31
239_002AIAGIAI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 …Elon Musk3/5C50.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31
239_003AIAGIWe are currently in AI hard takeoffElon Musk5/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
239_013RoboticsOptimusTesla will release an improved Optimus design every yearElon Musk3/5C50.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
239_033RoboticsOptimusOptimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the worldElon Musk5/5B65.0%partial2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
240_042Macro/EconomyeconomyEconomy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number)Elon Musk4/5A60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2036-12-31
246_015SpaceSpaceXElon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon).Elon Musk3/5C50.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
AI_004AIsmarter-than-smartest-humanAI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automat…Elon Musk5/5A25.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
AUT_013Auto/Transportrobotaxi-25-50-percent-US-2026'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-…Elon Musk5/5A15.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31
CMQ_022AIsuperintelligenceAGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw c…Elon Musk5/5A50.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31
CMQ_054Macro/Economyabundance-thesisHumanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a…Elon Musk5/5A20.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2035-12-31
INF_017EnergyColossus-Phase-2xAI Colossus Phase 2 will consume approximately 1.5 gigawatts of power — city…Elon Musk5/5A82.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30
INF_019EnergyDC-water-consumptionA modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of fre…Elon Musk4/5B90.0%hit2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
INF_060Energypost-lithium-batteriesThree new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 —…Elon Musk3/5B60.0%partial2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
ROB_009RoboticsOptimus-30K-retail-2026External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,00…Elon Musk5/5A25.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
ROB_011SpaceOptimus-Mars-2026An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomo…Elon Musk4/5B8.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
234_040Real EstateSpaceXElon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in AmericaElon Musk3/5C50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30
236_001Macro/EconomyAGIUniversal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneouslyElon Musk3/5B50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31
239_005AIAGIAI intelligence will far exceed human intelligence to incomprehensible degreeElon Musk5/5B50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
239_006AIAGIAI will solve everything including longevityElon Musk5/5B60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
239_007AIAGIHumans will become microscopic minority of intelligence on Earth and in solar…Elon Musk5/5B60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
239_014RoboticsOptimusTesla will build out 10M sq ft Optimus factoryElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30
239_015Labor/JobsAGITesla output per employee will become very very highElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
239_018Macro/EconomyAGIUniversal High Income will be implementedElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31
239_019Macro/EconomyAGIDeflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growthElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31
239_020AIAGIAI and robots will saturate all human desires, running out of things to doElon Musk4/5B30.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
239_021Macro/EconomyAGIMoney will stop being relevant at some pointElon Musk3/5C50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31
239_022AIAGIFuture AI will care about power/mass rather than human currencyElon Musk3/5C50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
239_023Macro/EconomyAGIAI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcyElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31
239_024Biotech/LongevityAGIEveryone on Earth will have better medical care than today's richest personElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
239_025Biotech/LongevityAGIAI will solve back painElon Musk3/5C50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-06-30
239_028EnergyAGIIntelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possibleElon Musk3/5C50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
239_029AIAGIIntelligence in solar system will be many orders of magnitude greater than on…Elon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
239_030Macro/Economyeconomy1000x current economy would saturate human desiresElon Musk3/5B50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31
239_032AIAGIProgress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curvesElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
240_040Macro/EconomyeconomyElon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desireElon Musk3/5B50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
242_020Auto/TransportAGICybercab to be priced at approximately $30KElon Musk3/5C50.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30
239_004AIAGIxAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026Elon Musk3/5C50.0%pending2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
239_016Labor/JobsAGITesla will not do layoffs and will increase headcountElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
241_025SpaceAGIElon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellationsElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
239_011RoboticsOptimusOptimus 3 production starts summer 2026Elon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2026-07-01 – 2026-07-31
INF_018Spaceorbital-DCsSpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 s…Elon Musk4/5B30.0%pending2027-01-01 – 2035-11-30
INF_038Labor/JobsUHI-social-unrestThe transition to Universal High Income (UHI) necessitated by AI-driven labor…Elon Musk4/5B40.0%pending2027-01-01 – 2035-12-31
241_057RoboticsAGIElon Musk believes robot building robot is imminentElon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30
239_012RoboticsOptimusOptimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027Elon Musk3/5C50.0%pending2027-07-01 – 2027-07-31
230_022RoboticsAGIElon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.Elon Musk3/5B35.0%pending2028-01-01 – 2030-11-30
242_001AIAGIElon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current glob…Elon Musk4/5B55.0%pending2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30