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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.68	Who will be the second trillionaire?	manifold 2026-06-13	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.68	Which AI company will release the most impactful new model before September 30, 2026?	manifold 2026-06-13	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will OpenAI's primary consumer AI product still be branded 'ChatGPT' on December 31, 2033?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-15	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.68	SpecAlign: Efficient Specification-Grounded Alignment of Large Language Models via Synthetic Data	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	InvDesMobility: a reliability-gated first-principles feedback framework for closed-loop materials discovery	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.68	Green SARC: Predictive Cost and Carbon Governance for Agentic AI Systems	arxiv 2026-06-14	235_014 Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability. Sam Altman	AI	51%
0.68	Graphical-Probabilistic Modeling of Generative Flows in LLM-Native Software Systems	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	How Post-Training Shapes Biological Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.68	GPT-Based Fast Simulation of CLAS12 Detector Hits via Conditional Autoregressive Generation	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	The Value Axis: Language Models Encode Whether They're on the Right Track	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	How Much Can We Trust LLM Search Agents? Measuring Endorsement Vulnerability to Web Content Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.68	Bridging the Usability Gap: Lessons from Interpreting Studies for Machine Interpreting Design	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.68	Learning New Tasks via Reusable Skills: Skill-Compositional Experts for Embodied Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	FDA ANDA209738: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will my color-based web game exceed 100 users in a single day?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-17	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.68	By when will in-space electricity production exceed surface production?	manifold 2026-06-17	241_054 Space wins by far on energy argument for data centers Peter Diamandis	Space	54%
0.68	How many Starship launches will occur in 2028?	manifold 2026-06-17	242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis	Space	49%
0.68	A T-API-Compliant ReAct Agentic Loop for Optical Networks: Generic vs. Domain-Specific Tool Abstractions	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	PearlVLA: Progressive Embodied Action-Plan Refinement in Latent Space	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Trustworthy Self-Composable Big-Data-as-a-Service: An LLM-Orchestrated Multi-Agent Framework for Automated Data Engineering, AutoML, MLOps Deployment, and Drift-Aware Lifecycle Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.68	Trustworthy Self-Composable Big-Data-as-a-Service: An LLM-Orchestrated Multi-Agent Framework for Automated Data Engineering, AutoML, MLOps Deployment, and Drift-Aware Lifecycle Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb	AI	62%
0.68	A Framework for Evaluating Agentic Skills at Scale	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Closing the Feedback Loop: From Experience Extraction to Insight Governance in Verbal Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Understanding LLMs in Title-Abstract Screening: From Disagreements to Recommendations	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.68	OmniDrive: An LLM-Choreographed Multi-Agent World Model with Unified Latent Co-Compression for Multi-View Driving Video Generation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Scaling Enterprise Agent Routing: Degradation, Diagnosis, and Recovery	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_002 Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enterprise reality involves significant operational friction — the 'integration schlep' — characterized by legacy software incompatibilities, rigid corporate bureaucracies, and per... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Macro/Economy	85%
0.68	Can LLMs Be CEOs? Benchmarking Strategic Resource Reallocation with Multi-Role Agent Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.68	Can LLMs Be CEOs? Benchmarking Strategic Resource Reallocation with Multi-Role Agent Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.68	SoK: AI-Augmented Binary Reversing	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.68	Continual Self-Improvement with Lightweight Experiential Latent Memories	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	From Compression to Deployment: Real-Time and Energy-Efficient FastGRNN on Ultra-Constrained Microcontrollers	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.68	WorldLines: Benchmarking and Modeling Long-Horizon Stateful Embodied Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	SwitchBraidNet: Quantisation-Aware Lightweight Architecture for Hybrid Brain-Computer Interface	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.68	ForecastBench-Sim: A Simulated-World Forecasting Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.68	Benchmarking Action Spaces in Reinforcement Learning for Vision-based Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Optimal scenario design for climate emulation	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Model-Free Reinforcement Learning Control for Resilient Cyber-Physical Systems	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.68	Learning Augmented Exact Exponential Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	IndicContextEval: A Benchmark for Evaluating Context Utilisation in Audio Large Language Models Across 8 Indic Languages	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	LegalWorld: A Life-Cycle Interactive Environment for Legal Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.68	CABLE: Cloud-Assisted Bandwidth-efficient LMM-based Encoding for V2X Systems	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	By when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?	manifold 2026-06-19	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.68	Will the Twin prime Conjecture be proven before 2030?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-19	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.68	Sovereign Execution Brokers: Enforcing Certificate-Bound Authority in Agentic Control Planes	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.68	Hybrid ANN-SNN Pipeline with Local Plasticity	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	When Lower Privileges Suffice: Investigating Over-Privileged Tool Selection in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.68	The Algorithmic-Human Manager: AI, Apps, and Workers in the Indian Gig Economy	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	23%
0.68	Before the Pull Request: Mining Multi-Agent Coordination	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_002 Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enterprise reality involves significant operational friction — the 'integration schlep' — characterized by legacy software incompatibilities, rigid corporate bureaucracies, and per... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Macro/Economy	85%
0.68	StaminaBench: Stress-Testing Coding Agents over 100 Interaction Turns	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.68	A Tool for the Synthesis of Adaptive Probabilistic Processors Based on the Ising Model	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.68	Execution-State Capsules: Graph-Bound Execution-State Checkpoint and Restore for Low-Latency, Small-Batch, On-Device Physical-AI Serving	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.68	GEMS: Geometric Constraints Enable Multi-Semantic Superposition in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Leverage Is Not Reach: A Control-Window Law for Single-Neuron Steering in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	TerraMARS: A Domain-Adapted Small-Language-Model Pipeline for Mars Terraforming Literature	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30?(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.68	meta beats estimates but soaring ai spending rattles investors 1091449.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	67%
0.68	anthropic s mythos forces a rethink of vulnerability management	gdelt 2026-04-30	235_043 Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. Salim Ismail	Defense	36%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.68	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.68	Will "How Go Players Disempower Themselves to AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-02	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	25%
0.68	Will I get an AI lab offer?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-02	240_022 All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.68	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	another @subquadratic twitter announcement about SubQ model family, in 2026?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-05	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.68	FDA ANDA209348: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — DR REDDYS	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.68	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.99.0	github_release 2026-05-05	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.68	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.79.0	github_release 2026-02-07	246_047 Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. Peter Diamandis	AI	76%
0.68	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.18.0-rc2	github_release 2024-10-16	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.68	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.18.0-rc1	github_release 2024-10-07	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.68	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2025-12-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 6?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.68	Which Starship Variants will fly before 2032	manifold 2026-05-06	SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis	Space	41%
0.68	A Workflow-Oriented Framework for Asynchronous Human-AI Collaboration in Hybrid and Compute-Intensive HPC Environments	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.68	FUS3DMaps: Scalable and Accurate Open-Vocabulary Semantic Mapping by 3D Fusion of Voxel- and Instance-Level Layers	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Learning Generalizable Action Representations via Pre-training AEMG	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	SkCC: Portable and Secure Skill Compilation for Cross-Framework LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Counterfactual Reasoning in Automated Planning	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	ARA: Agentic Reproducibility Assessment For Scalable Support Of Scientific Peer-Review	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.68	Gradient-Gated DPO: Stabilizing Preference Optimization in Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	BifrostUMI: Bridging Robot-Free Demonstrations and Humanoid Whole-Body Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Shared Autonomy Assisted by Impedance-Driven Anisotropic Guidance Field	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.68	Shared Autonomy Assisted by Impedance-Driven Anisotropic Guidance Field	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Do We Really Need Immediate Resets? Rethinking Collision Handling for Efficient Robot Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Conceptors for Semantic Steering	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.68	Conceptors for Semantic Steering	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	SCOUT: Active Information Foraging for Long-Text Understanding with Decoupled Epistemic States	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.68	AI Co-Mathematician: Accelerating Mathematicians with Agentic AI	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	AI Co-Mathematician: Accelerating Mathematicians with Agentic AI	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.68	Process Matters more than Output for Distinguishing Humans from Machines	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	LLM-Driven Design Space Exploration of FPGA-based Accelerators	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.68	Sequential Design of Genetic Circuits Under Uncertainty With Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%