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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.62	Equivariance and Augmentation for Bayesian Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	LLM-Based Examination of Eligibility Criteria from Securities Prospectuses at the German Central Bank	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.62	HarmVideoBench: Benchmarking Harmful Video Understanding in Large Multimodal Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.62	HarmVideoBench: Benchmarking Harmful Video Understanding in Large Multimodal Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Improving General Role-Playing Agents via Psychology-Grounded Reasoning and Role-Aware Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	ProfileFoundry: A Synthetic Person-Object Substrate for Privacy, Memory, and Tool-Use Evaluation in LLM Agent	arxiv 2026-06-24	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.62	Continual Robot Policy Learning via Variational Neural Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	VibeAct: Vibration to Actions for Contact-Rich Reactive Robot Dexterity	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Humanoid-DART: Humanoid Loco-Manipulation using Diffusion-guided Augmentation through Relabeling and Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Ordinal Neural Collapse as a Representation Prior for Visual Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	G2DP: Diffusion Planning with Spatio-Temporal Grid Guidance	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.62	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.62	will IMO(math) 2026 problem 1 day 1 is a geometry?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-27	SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	34%
0.62	FDA ANDA206885: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA ANDA205321: PREGABALIN (PREGABALIN) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-06-23	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.62	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.62	Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will Declan Rice win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Spread: Spain (-3.5)(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.62	Learning from Mistakes: Rollout-Retrieval Lifelong Policy Learning for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-29	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	Federated Learning with Energy-Based Structured Probabilistic Inference	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	Online Data Selection for Instruction Tuning via Gaussian Processes	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	RiverONE: Generating Knowledge-Intensive VLM by Simulated Quantum Machines	arxiv 2026-06-29	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	A causal modeling perspective on decision theory	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	Child-Centric Voice Anonymization in Single and Multi-Speaker Speech via Domain-Adapted SSL Models	arxiv 2026-06-29	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Dual-Flow Reinforcement Learning with State-Aware Exploration	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Multi-Level Distributional Entropy for Explainable Network Intrusion Detection	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	PS-PPO: Prefix-Sampling PPO for Critic-Free RLHF	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Redefining Maritime Anomaly Detection via Equation-Grounded Synthetic Anomalies	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.62	Sample-Efficient Learning of Probabilistic Causes for Reachability in Markov Decision Processes with Probabilistic Guarantees	arxiv 2026-06-29	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.62	Sample-Efficient Learning of Probabilistic Causes for Reachability in Markov Decision Processes with Probabilistic Guarantees	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	RenderFormer++: Scalable and Physically Grounded Feed-Forward Neural Rendering	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	OLIVE: View-Augmented Latent Prediction with Waveform Reconstruction for Speech SSL	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Characterizing Optimizer-Dependent Training Dynamics Through Hessian Eigenvector Displacement and Localization	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	The Forgetting-Retention Dilemma: Certified Unlearning Theory in Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.62	The Forgetting-Retention Dilemma: Certified Unlearning Theory in Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	Improved Multi-Dimensional Forecasting for Swap Regret	arxiv 2026-06-28	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	Improved Multi-Dimensional Forecasting for Swap Regret	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	Not All Objectives Are Born Equal: Priority-Constrained Descent for Hierarchical Multi-Objective Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	The Calibrated Deepfake Trust Score (CDTS): Competence-Coupled Trust Degradation Across Deepfake Detectors	arxiv 2026-06-28	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.62	Prototype Latent World Model Replay for Class-Incremental Learning	arxiv 2026-06-28	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.62	Interpretable Inverse Design of Metal-Organic Frameworks with Large Language Model Agents	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Temporal Posed and Spontaneous Gesture Recognition from Electromyography in the Rock-Paper-Scissors Game	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis)	Robotics	41%
0.62	Can Machines Really See Objects in Images? A Study Based on Syntactic Distance and Visual Self-Referential Instances	arxiv 2026-06-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Before Thinking, Learn to Decide: Proactive Routing for Efficient Visual Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	SHOVIR: A Benchmark for Evaluating Vision Shortcut Learning in Radiology Report Generation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	Timesteps of Mamba Align with Human Reading Times	arxiv 2026-06-29	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	KYON: Semi-Modular Wheel-Legged Quadruped With Agile Bimanual Capability	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 29-July 5?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Success of SpaceX Starship Flight 14's catch attempts (~Aug)?	manifold 2026-06-30	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	PolicyGuard: From Organizational Policies to Neuro-SymbolicCompliance Review Engines	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	PolicyGuard: From Organizational Policies to Neuro-SymbolicCompliance Review Engines	arxiv 2026-06-30	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.62	Making Sense of Touch from the Child's View for Contrastive Learning	arxiv 2026-06-30	233_014 Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. Dave Blundin	Biotech/Longevity	32%
0.62	Accelerating Conformal Prediction via Approximate Leave-One-Out	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	Sequential RC-TGAN: Generating Relational Time Series with Spectral Envelope Loss	arxiv 2026-06-30	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	Harnessing Textual Refusal Directions for Multimodal Safety	arxiv 2026-06-30	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Localized Conformal Prediction for Image Classification with Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	RaBitQCache: Rotated Binary Quantization for KVCache in Long Context LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Linguistic Bias Mitigation for Spoofing Detection via Gradient Reversal and A Variational Information Bottleneck	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Calibrating the Evaluator: Does Probability Calibration Mitigate Preference Coupling in LLM Agent Feedback Loops?	arxiv 2026-06-30	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Mind the Residual Gap: Probabilistic Downscaling under Real-World Bias	arxiv 2026-06-29	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	FDA ANDA202970: LEVONORGESTREL AND ETHINYL ESTRADIOL (ETHINYL ESTRADIOL) — XIROMED	fda 2026-06-25	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.62	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	16%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on July 3?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.62	On what days will I be productive?	manifold 2026-07-02	237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin	AI	47%
0.62	Aionoscope: Debugging Latent-State Accessibility in Time-Series Representations	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	From Pixels to Temporal Correlations: Learning Informative Representations for Reinforcement Learning Pre-training	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Local Motion Matters: A Deconstruct-Recompose Paradigm for Reinforcement Learning Pre-training from Videos	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Generative Refinement for Low-Budget Black-Box Optimization	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Generative Refinement for Low-Budget Black-Box Optimization	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Optimal scaling of MCMC algorithms: exploiting the symmetry of the Metropolis-Hastings formula	arxiv 2026-07-01	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	Predicting Lethal Outcome (Cause) And Understanding Key Biomarkers Linked With Acute Myocardial Infarction Using Deep Artificial Neural Network And Ensemble Of Machine Learning Methodologies	arxiv 2026-07-01	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.62	Homogenization of $\ell_2$-Adversarial Training in High-Dimensions: Exact Dynamics under Stochastic Gradient Descent	arxiv 2026-06-30	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	StateFlow: Dual-State Recurrent Modeling for Long-Horizon Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-30	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Steal the Patch Size: Adversarially Manipulate Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-30	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.62	A Filtered Mixture-of-Generators for Fully Synthetic Survival Training	arxiv 2026-06-30	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.62	Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.62	Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 4?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 5?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 5?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will Rust be the most admired and most desired language in the 2026 StackOverflow developer survey?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-07-03	ROB_006 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programming interface; programmers transition from syntax writers to high-level intent specifiers. Andrej Karpathy	AI	92%
0.62	Has This Checkpoint Been Abliterated? A Two-Signal Audit and Its Failure Map	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	Path-level Hindsight Instructions for Semantic Exploration in Vision-Language Navigation	arxiv 2026-07-02	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Separating Expert Retention from Autonomous Source Inference in Raw-ECG-Replay-Free Continual ECG Deployment	arxiv 2026-07-02	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%