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103,951 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 386 of 553, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-23 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | |
| 0.57 | Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | CMQ_046 Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes of DRAM demand by 2027 — up to 77% of global supply. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 56% | |
| 0.57 | Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-03-23 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-03-06 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 237_028 Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 78% | |
| 0.57 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs SK Gaming (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-09-17 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | Utah vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.57 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Stars vs. Wild(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Stars vs. Wild(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.57 | Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Pistons (-4.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Pistons (-4.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Abidjan 2: Niels Visker vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 241_061 China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% |