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95,758 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 295 of 504, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-12.5)(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-28 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.58 | Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Francavilla: Andrea Guerrieri vs Chun-Hsin Tseng(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: mCon esports vs The Bandits (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-10.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.58 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: TOG (-1.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: HOTU vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will América FC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-23 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.58 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Trump Leave China on May 15?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Will Russell Henley win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque | Media/Ads | 35% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-02-13 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Golden Knights vs. Avalanche(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% |