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94,964 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 276 of 495, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 234_009 Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably Alex Wissner-Gross | Defense | 39% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-05-31 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.59 | Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.59 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will Jonah Heim win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | O/U 1.5 Rounds(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.59 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.59 | Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?(market prob: 80%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.59 | Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.59 | Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | |
| 0.59 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.59 | Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5)(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.59 | Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.59 | Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.59 | Will Neal Shipley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 34% | |
| 0.59 | Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | O/U 1.5 Rounds(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 238_059 Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 42% | |
| 0.59 | O/U 1.5 Rounds(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.59 | Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026?(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2025-07-24 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Austria (-1.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% |