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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.66	Training and Evaluating Diffusion Policies with Long Context Lengths	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	ACCORD: Action-Conditioned Contextual Grounding for Language Agents	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.66	Is Your Trajectory Displacement Safe in Long-tail?	arxiv 2026-06-15	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.66	Orchestrated Reality: From Role-Play to Living, Playable Game Worlds -- LLM-Driven World Simulation as a Parameterized-Action POMDP	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.66	SPICE: Synergy and Partial Information Based Curriculum Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_002 Educational systems must pivot from teaching skill acquisition and execution to teaching orchestration of agentic swarms and discovery of purpose — value accrues to individuals who master AI orchestration over traditional knowledge work; rendering trad... Alex Finn	Education	50%
0.66	HiMPO: Hindsight-Informed Memory Policy Optimization for Less-Entangled Credit in Long-Horizon Agents	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	SkillWiki: A Living Knowledge Infrastructure for Agent Skills	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.66	Towards Pareto-Optimal Tool-Integrated Agents with Pareto Ranking Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Agentic Retrieval and Reinforcement Learned Equation Chains: A Controlled Generation Framework for Complex and Novel Physics Word Problems	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Reinforcement Learning with Inner-loop Dynamics Estimator for Aerial Manipulation under Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	V2P-Manip: Learning Dexterous Manipulation from Monocular Human Videos	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	Distributed Safe Consensus Under Asymmetric Input and Time-Varying Output Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.66	$λ$-Reachability: Geometric-Horizon Safety Bellman Equations for Humanoid Safety	arxiv 2026-06-14	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.66	Robustness of Similarity-based Positional Encoding Under Rotations: Theoretical Analysis and Experimental Validation	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Conservation Laws for Modern Neural Architectures	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.66	MIVE: A Minimalist Integer Vector Engine for Softmax LayerNorm and RMSNorm Acceleration	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.66	Beyond Domains: Reusing Web Skills via Transferable Interaction Patterns	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	Reinforcing Dual-Path Reasoning in Spatial Vision Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Incumbent Advantage: Brand Bias and Cognitive Manipulation Dynamics in LLM Recommendation Systems	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	SoK: AI-Augmented Binary Reversing	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.66	When Rules Learn: A Self-Evolving Agent for Legal Case Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	Deep Reinforcement Learning for Minimum Zero-Forcing Sets	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Continuous-time Optimal Stopping through Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	When the Next Step Is Not One Step: Distribution-Aware Execution Modeling for Concurrent Go Programs	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.66	Damage Adaptation in Seconds for Architected Materials	arxiv 2026-06-16	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.66	Dynamic Rollout Editing for Reducing Overthinking in RL-Trained Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	WireCraft: A Simulation Benchmark for Industrial DLO Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	When Robots Sleep: Offline Skill Consolidation for Shared-Policy Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	DexLink Hand: A Compact, Affordable, 16-DOF Linkage-Driven Hand with Human-Like Dexterity	arxiv 2026-06-16	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.66	EgoInfinity: A Web-Scale 4D Hand-Object Interaction Data Engine for Any-View Robot Retargeting and Video-to-Action Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	230_022 Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. Elon Musk	Robotics	31%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Bitcoin be at or above 75k at the end of the month?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-17	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.66	Data Intelligence Agents: Interpreting, Modeling, and Querying Enterprise Data via Autonomous Coding Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Essential Subspace Merging for Multi-Task Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	RODS: Reward-Driven Online Data Synthesis for Multi-Turn Tool-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	RTSGameBench: An RTS Benchmark for Strategic Reasoning by Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.66	Generative-Model Predictive Planning for Navigation in Partially Observable Environments	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	Leveraging Energy Features for Surface Classification with Deep Learning: A Comparative Analysis Across Three Independent Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Leveraging Energy Features for Surface Classification with Deep Learning: A Comparative Analysis Across Three Independent Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-17	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.66	Agentra: A Supervisable Multi-Agent Framework for Enterprise Intrusion Response	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.66	Agentra: A Supervisable Multi-Agent Framework for Enterprise Intrusion Response	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.66	Generalised Eigenvalue Geometry of Semantic Adversarial Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-17	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.66	Sumi: Open Uniform Diffusion Language Model from Scratch	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	A Neural Network Framework for Geodesic-Like Curve Computation on Parametric Surfaces	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.66	PACT: Preserving Anchored Cores in Task-vectors for Model Merging	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.66	Sensor Configuration Matters: A Systematic Evaluation of Multimodal SLAM on Quadruped Robots	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Recover, Discover, Plan: Learning Skills and Concepts from Robot Failures	arxiv 2026-06-16	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	DeepSWIP: Quotient-WMC Counterfactuals for Neural Probabilistic Logic Programs	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Multi-LCB: Extending LiveCodeBench to Multiple Programming Languages	arxiv 2026-06-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.66	Learner-based Concept Drift Detection: Analysis and Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.66	FlowMaps: Modeling Long-Term Multimodal Object Dynamics with Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	Modularity-Free Conflict-Averse Training for Generalized PINNs	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.66	When Lower Privileges Suffice: Investigating Over-Privileged Tool Selection in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	Reward as An Agent for Embodied World Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.66	SafeSpec: Fast and Safe LLM via Dynamic Reflective Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Formal Verification of Learned Multi-Agent Communication Policies via Decision Tree Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	Which Pairs to Compare for LLM Post-Training?	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Emergent Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Multi-Granular Attention-Driven Reinforcement Learning Framework for Web Intelligent Enhancement Systems	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	DF-ExpEnse: Diffusion Filtered Exploration for Sample Efficient Finetuning	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	Generative Engine Optimization at Scale: Measuring Brand Visibility Across AI Search Engines	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	TerraMARS: A Domain-Adapted Small-Language-Model Pipeline for Mars Terraforming Literature	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Co-VLA: Coordination-Aware Structured Action Modeling for Dual-Arm Vision-Language-Action Systems	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	World Engine: Towards the Era of Post-Training for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	Scaling Self-Play for End-to-End Driving	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	FDA ANDA202593: CAPECITABINE (CAPECITABINE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.66	When will Earth-originating life become Kardashev 0.9 total or higher?	manifold 2026-06-20	242_039 NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator)	Space	46%
0.66	FDA ANDA218900: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — SAPTALIS PHARMS	fda 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 24?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	230_022 Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. Elon Musk	Robotics	31%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	By when will JAXA's Martian Moons eXploration mission launch?	manifold 2026-06-22	242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis	Space	56%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24?(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	Who will be the first Artemis astronaut to set foot on the Moon?	manifold 2026-06-23	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.66	AIR: Adaptive Interleaved Reasoning with Code in MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	RECALL: Recovery Experience Collection for Active Lifelong Learning in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	Causal Discovery in the Era of Agents	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.66	Litmus: Zero-Label, Code-Driven Metric Specification for Evaluating AI Systems	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.66	Dynamic multi-agent deep reinforcement learning-based pricing and incentivization approach in multimodal transportation networks	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.66	Self-Evolution for Multi-Turn Tool-Calling Agents via Divergence-Point Preference Learning	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	HALAS: A Human-Annotated Dataset of Hallucinations of Modern ASR Systems	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.66	ScalingAttention: Discovering Intrinsic Sparse Attention Topology for Video Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%