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63,896 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 15 of 39, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.67 | Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.67 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-10-10 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-10 | 242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 25% | |
| 0.67 | Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-10 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6?(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8?(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch | Space | 70% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 1?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.67 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 1?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2025-11-24 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.67 | Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.67 | Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 25% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9?(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on May 8?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-01-14 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.67 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-29 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-10 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.67 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-10 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 4?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7?(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.67 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9?(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.67 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30?(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.67 | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.67 | Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 6?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 8?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 12?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% |