Predictions

153 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 4. Click any row to view its detail.

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IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
230_041AIAI-scalingCourse corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to …Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31
230_046AIAI-scalingOpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dr…Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
231_014AIAI-scalingRemaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months.Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
231_041Labor/JobsAI-scalingRadical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing d…Dave Blundin5/5B65.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31
231_053Labor/JobsAI-scalingWithin a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what…Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
232_015AIAI-scalingAI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the…Dave Blundin3/5C55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30
232_043Labor/JobsAI-scalingCorporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will…Dave Blundin4/5A65.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31
233_005AIAI-scalingInteractive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within …Dave Blundin4/5A62.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31
233_014Biotech/LongevityAI-scalingOver the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won'…Dave Blundin3/5C55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2038-11-30
234_002AIAI-scalingWithin 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everythingDave Blundin3/5B55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30
234_035GeopoliticsAI-scalingMassive social unrest will come before the next US presidential electionDave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30
235_004Labor/JobsAI-scalingNext 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregula…Dave Blundin4/5A60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31
235_005AIAI-scalingAI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.Dave Blundin4/5A60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
235_006AIAI-scalingBy end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent.Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
235_007GeopoliticsAI-scalingAI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
235_009DefenseAI-scalingAnthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years.Dave Blundin3/5C55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2029-09-30
235_046GeopoliticsAI-scalingWindow of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferat…Dave Blundin3/5B55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
236_004AIAI-scalingAmount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seenDave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30
236_017Macro/EconomyAI-scalingRampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quicklyDave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31
238_023AIAI-scalingNeural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in …Dave Blundin5/5B65.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
238_061Macro/EconomyAI-scalingMassive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31
238_062Labor/JobsAI-scalingIndustrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40)Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31
240_010Markets/StocksAI-scalingNVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar yearDave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
240_016AIAI-scalingEveryone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain)Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30
240_019AIAI-scalingPost-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a yearDave Blundin3/5C55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31
240_028SpaceAI-scalingDyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 yearsDave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31
240_029AIAI-scalingASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buil…Dave Blundin3/5C55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31
240_041AIAI-scalingConsumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the ne…Dave Blundin3/5C55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30
240_048Labor/JobsAI-scalingSpreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this yearDave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
240_050Labor/JobsAI-scalingUS will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a jobDave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
242_010AIAI-scalingBy end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new m…Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
242_035Markets/StocksAI-scalingS&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FC…Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2036-05-31
242_049Macro/EconomyAI-scalingW-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciateDave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31
246_052AIAI-scalingFrontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use.Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
247_008AIAI-scalingAnthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following …Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
247_009AIAI-scalingAnthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026Dave Blundin3/5C55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31
247_028AIAI-scalingMusk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departingDave Blundin3/5C55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
248_011AIAI-scalingFrontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon th…Dave Blundin5/5B65.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31
248_043RoboticsAI-scalingFull sewing/stitching automation likely within six months.Dave Blundin3/5C55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
IND_007Labor/Jobscorporate-collapse-2026-buzzard-humanMassive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-…Dave Blundin5/5C38.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
229_036SpaceAI-scalingHumanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials.Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
229_038Macro/EconomyAI-scalingRobotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robo…Dave Blundin3/5B30.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
229_040RoboticsAI-scalingWhen Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millim…Dave Blundin3/5B55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
234_030Auto/TransportAI-scalingAuto insurance industry will shrink as crashes decline from self-drivingDave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
234_031Auto/TransportAI-scalingOnly 20 million cars needed once FSD robotaxis arrive, down from 140 millionDave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
234_039Real EstateAI-scalingDistant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner cityDave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
236_041Labor/JobsAI-scalingGig work like Uber will be eliminated by AIDave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31
238_018Auto/TransportAI-scalingUber drivers face rampant, imminent job loss from self-driving carsDave Blundin5/5B65.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
238_019Labor/JobsAI-scalingJevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas eve…Dave Blundin3/5B55.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31
238_029Labor/JobsAI-scalingWhite-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-…Dave Blundin4/5B60.0%pending2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31