Predictions
1,159 of 1,621 predictions match — page 7 of 24. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 234_038 | Real Estate | AI-timing | Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 234_039 | Real Estate | AI-scaling | Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 234_040 | Real Estate | SpaceX | Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in America | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 234_042 | Macro/Economy | jobs | AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social Se… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 234_043 | Education | AI-timing | Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2034-06-30 |
| 234_044 | AI | AI-timing | Intelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQ | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-08-31 |
| 234_045 | Space | orbital-AI | Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physic… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 234_047 | AI | AI-scaling | Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_048 | AI | AI-scaling | Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-11-30 |
| 234_049 | Space | humanoids | First lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via humanoid robot con… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 236_001 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneously | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 236_002 | Macro/Economy | economy | UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2034-06-30 |
| 236_006 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | AI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most away | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 236_008 | Markets/Stocks | $100T | First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 70.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 236_009 | Macro/Economy | economy | Human billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfers | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-12-31 |
| 236_020 | Robotics | humanoids | No robot plumbers or HVAC repair people anytime soon | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 236_022 | Robotics | humanoids | Robots will build data centers in foreseeable time frame | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 236_030 | AI | $100T | AI will create trillions of dollars of value and transform how we work and live | Andrew Yang | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 236_032 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | AI has chance of fixing poverty globally | Andrew Yang | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 236_035 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Significant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistants | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 236_036 | Macro/Economy | economy | Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 236_037 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Transportation will shift from ownership to subscription/access model | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-10-31 |
| 236_038 | Education | AI-timing | Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public be… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-09-30 |
| 236_040 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 236_041 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Gig work like Uber will be eliminated by AI | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 236_042 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Insurance underwriting will flip from driver risk to systemic risk as FSD mat… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 236_043 | Education | AI-timing | Universities will become largest incubators on the planet | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-05-31 |
| 236_044 | Education | AI-timing | Universities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they sur… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-09-30 |
| 238_001 | AI | AI-scaling | Cost drop in AI models will make them much more accessible to many more people | Unknown | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_002 | AI | AI-timing | Rising cost of talent will force Frontier Labs to compete on algorithmic insi… | Unknown | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-09-30 |
| 238_003 | Media/Ads | orbital-AI | Moonshots podcast team will soon move into an Airbnb for continuous podcasting | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-09-30 |
| 238_007 | AI | AI-scaling | There will be no more than ~10 foundation model labs globally, but thousands … | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-11-30 |
| 238_008 | Markets/Stocks | abundance | Many incumbent companies will be in deep trouble between now and the abundanc… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 238_011 | AI | $100T | Frontier AI labs will generate trillions of dollars in new revenue from break… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_012 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes | Kevin Weil | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_013 | AI | AGI | Frontier labs will increasingly keep their most capable models secret to self… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_014 | AI | AI-scaling | Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do an… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_018 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Uber drivers face rampant, imminent job loss from self-driving cars | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 238_019 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas eve… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_021 | AI | AI-timing | Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_022 | AI | AI-timing | From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_024 | AI | AI-timing | AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_026 | AI | AI-timing | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_027 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_028 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks… | Emad Mostaque | 2/5 | D | 40.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_029 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_030 | AI | AI-scaling | AI will soon make very good venture capital investment decisions | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_032 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | End-state of AI is abundance and post-scarce labor — path is 'no firewall' | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_034 | AI | AI-scaling | Software developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the n… | Andrej Karpathy | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_035 | AI | AI-scaling | AI agents will outnumber humans — trillion agents vs 8 billion humans | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |