Predictions
209 of 1,660 predictions match — page 2 of 5. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 238_014 | AI | AI-scaling | Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do an… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_021 | AI | AI-timing | Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_022 | AI | AI-timing | From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_026 | AI | AI-timing | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_027 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_032 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | End-state of AI is abundance and post-scarce labor — path is 'no firewall' | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_037 | AI | AI-scaling | Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-09-30 |
| 238_038 | AI | AI-scaling | Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attent… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_042 | Consumer | AI-timing | Iris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail stores | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-06-30 |
| 238_044 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_045 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Eon Systems aims to upload human minds to cyberspace as soon as possible | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 238_056 | Macro/Economy | jobs | Capital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_071 | AI | AI-scaling | Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-tra… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_018 | AI | $100T | Trillion dollar company to be built turning every individual into a one-perso… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_021 | AI | AI-timing | Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_030 | Geopolitics | AGI | Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion o… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-11-30 |
| 240_047 | Robotics | AI-timing | Physical AI will be at least double the market opportunity of digital AI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 240_057 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_009 | Space | orbital-AI | We will have multiple Dyson swarms | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 242_018 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Human driving will never become illegal; driving will be redefined as higher … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 242_030 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Near-future reverse discrimination where humans need not apply for many jobs | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_041 | Space | AI-timing | United Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similar | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 242_043 | AI | AI-scaling | AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_044 | AI | AI-scaling | Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_045 | AI | economy | AI will redesign data centers, energy supplies, and entire economy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_055 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 242_056 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 246_009 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | SpaceX and Tesla will NOT merge absent financial distress or capital need. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 246_014 | Space | orbital-AI | Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_018 | Energy | AI-timing | Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar pro… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-11-30 |
| 246_019 | Space | AI-timing | Interstellar travel will use solar sail powered by terowatt lasers carrying u… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 246_028 | AI | AI-timing | Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderlin… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-10-31 |
| 246_031 | AI | AI-scaling | Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_032 | AI | AI-scaling | Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_033 | AI | autonomous | Insecurity of human-authored code will be recognized before insecurity of hum… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_034 | AI | AI-timing | Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_049 | AI | AI-scaling | Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 246_054 | Space | SpaceX | Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 247_005 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBC | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 247_017 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventually | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 247_029 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-scaling | OpenAI Foundation's cure for Alzheimer's could spawn a trillion-dollar pharma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 247_040 | Crypto | AI-scaling | AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 247_049 | Energy | AI-timing | Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physics | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-11-30 |
| 247_050 | Biotech/Longevity | crypto | Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-12-31 |
| 247_053 | Crypto | AI-scaling | AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-12-31 |
| 247_054 | Real Estate | AI-timing | Real estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 230_026 | Consumer | AI-timing | The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_001 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_015 | AI | AI-scaling | Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 231_016 | AI | AI-scaling | Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |