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108,318 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 413 of 2006, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.65	Efficient and Adaptive Human Activity Recognition via LLM Backbones	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Multi-Narrow Transformation as a Single-Model Ensemble: Boundary Conditions, Mechanisms, and Failure Modes	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.65	How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?	manifold 2026-05-13	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.65	Learning Local Constraints for Reinforcement-Learned Content Generators	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Uncertainty-Aware Prediction of Lung Tumor Growth from Sparse Longitudinal CT Data via Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Shortcut Mitigation via Spurious-Positive Samples	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	AcquisitionSynthesis: Targeted Data Generation using Acquisition Functions	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	On Hallucinations in Inverse Problems: Fundamental Limits and Provable Assessment Methods	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	What will the price of Bitcoin hit by May 30th UTC?	manifold 2026-05-15	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.65	Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-05-14	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.65	An Interpretable Latency Model for Speculative Decoding in LLM Serving	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Compositional Sparsity as an Inductive Bias for Neural Architecture Design	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Multi-Dimensional Model Integrity and Responsibility Assessment Index and Scoring Framework	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	Multi-Dimensional Model Integrity and Responsibility Assessment Index and Scoring Framework	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	FrontierSmith: Synthesizing Open-Ended Coding Problems at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Analog RF Computing: A New Paradigm for Energy-Efficient Edge AI Over MU-MIMO Systems	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Minimal-Intervention KV Retention: A Design-Space Study and a Diversity-Penalty Survivor	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	LLMs Know When They Know, but Do Not Act on It: A Metacognitive Harness for Test-time Scaling	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	GPT 5.6 release date?	manifold 2026-05-16	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.65	How many companies with a $5T+ market cap at end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-16	235_044 AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-18	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.65	Predictable Confabulations: Factual Recall by LLMs Scales with Model Size and Topic Frequency	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	AMARIS: A Memory-Augmented Rubric Improvement System for Rubric-Based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	When Outcome Looks Right But Discipline Fails: Trace-Based Evaluation Under Hidden Competitor State	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	Beyond Square Roots: Explicit Memory-Efficient Factorization for Multi-Epoch Private Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Proximal basin hopping: global optimization with guarantees	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Privacy Preserving Reinforcement Learning with One-Sided Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-18	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.65	Concise and Logically Consistent Conformal Sets for Neuro-Symbolic Concept-Based Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Symmetry-Compatible Principle for Optimizer Design: Embeddings, LM Heads, SwiGLU MLPs, and MoE Routers	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	DCFold: Efficient Protein Structure Generation with Single Forward Pass	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.65	CoX-MoE: Coalesced Expert Execution for High-Throughput MoE Inference with AMX-Enabled CPU-GPU Co-Execution	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.65	HydroAgent: Closing the Gap Between Frontier LLMs and Human Experts in Hydrologic Model Calibration via Simulator-Grounded RL	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-24	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.65	Trump goes to space in 2028? [Polymarket](market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-28	237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis	AI	59%
0.65	Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.65	Will "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-26	AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk	AI	13%
0.65	On which dates will you get a 20 mana trader bonus for a 1000 mana market?	manifold 2026-05-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.65	What will be the first one-person company to reach a $1 billion valuation?	manifold 2026-05-25	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.65	Do Proactive Agents Really Need an LLM to Decide When to Wake and What to Anchor?	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.65	Label Over Logic? How Source Cues Bias Human Fallacy Judgments More Than LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Towards Verifiable Multimodal Deep Research: A Multi-Agent Harness for Interleaved Report Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%