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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.63	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will GPT 5.6 Sol and Claude Fable 5 become broadly available to US customers on the same day?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.63	SpaceX pivots away from xAI(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-06-26	INF_018 SpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 solar, near-absolute-zero vacuum for passive cooling, and eliminating freshwater consumption constraints of terrestrial facilities. Elon Musk	Space	20%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-26	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Autoregressive Boltzmann Generators	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.63	Language-Based Digital Twins for Elderly Cognitive Assistance	arxiv 2026-06-25	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Parametric Open Source Games	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	NuclearQAv2: A Structured Benchmark for Evaluating Domain-Science Competence in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Scaling Multi-Reference Image Generation with Dynamic Reward Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Learning to Recover Task Experts from a Multi-Task Merged Model	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Autoformalization of Agent Instructions into Policy-as-Code	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_037 EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers. Daniella Amodei	Geopolitics	60%
0.63	\textsc{DiARC}: Distinguishing Positive and Negative Samples Helps Improving ARC-like Reasoning Ability of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.63	Multipath Adaptive Gated Bottleneck Latent ODE with Raman Data Fusion for Cell Culture Process Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.63	Localizing RL-Induced Tool Use to a Single Crosscoder Feature	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	SSM Adapters via Hankel Reduced-order Modeling: Injection Site Determines Task Suitability in Long-Context Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-24	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	SSM Adapters via Hankel Reduced-order Modeling: Injection Site Determines Task Suitability in Long-Context Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Designing Reward Signals for Portable Query Generation: A Case Study in Industrial Semantic Job Search	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Reasoning Quality Emerges Early: Data Curation for Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.63	Can Large Language Models Reliably Code Qualitative Humanitarian Data? A Benchmark Study Against Human Expert Adjudication	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Sample-efficient Transfer Reinforcement Learning via Adaptive Reward Shaping and Policy-Ratio Reweighting Strategy	arxiv 2026-06-25	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	Epiphany-Aware KV Cache Eviction Without the Attention Matrix	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Equivariance and Augmentation for Bayesian Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.63	Necessary but Not Sufficient: Temperature Control and Reproducibility in LLM-as-Judge Safety Evaluations	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.63	Paved with True Intents: Intent-Aware Training Improves LLM Safety Classification Across Training Regimes	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	SocialPersona: Benchmarking Personalized Profiling and Response with Multimodal Social-Media Context	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.63	Assessing Post-Reform Changes in Risk Disclosure Quality with a Multidimensional Text Analysis Approach	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_004 Equity markets will algorithmically reward corporate entities that utilize AI to slash headcount while ruthlessly punishing those that retain human-heavy operational structures — transforming AI from productivity tool into an economic surveillance mech... Andrew Yang	Markets/Stocks	30%
0.63	OctoSense: Self-Supervised Learning for Multimodal Robot Perception	arxiv 2026-06-25	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.63	Layered Outer-Loop Control for Disturbance-Robust Multi-Waypoint UAV Arrival	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	Large-Scale Tunnel Air-Ground Collaboration With FLISP: Fast LiDAR-IMU Synchronized Path Planner	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.63	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will France win on 2026-06-30?(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.63	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.63	Silver price stays under $69 in July 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-27	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.63	Silver price stays under $69 in July 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-27	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	45%
0.63	Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS) (CIK 0001821769)	edgar_8k 2026-06-26	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.63	FDA ANDA074597: HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.63	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.63	Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-29	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 1?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.63	Using Large Language Models as Low-Cost Statistical Estimators for Human-Response Data	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	DRIFT: Difficulty Routing Self-DIstillation with Rhythm-Gated Exploration and Success BuFfer Training	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Rehearsed Multi-Agent Live Product Demonstrations with Real-Time Voice Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	EMPATH: A Multilingual Auditor-Judge Benchmark for Safety Evaluation of Emotional-Support Chatbots	arxiv 2026-06-29	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	Federated Learning with Energy-Based Structured Probabilistic Inference	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Hyper-Network Neural Functional Maps for Unsupervised Robust 3D Shape Matching	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Propagation of~Interval Belief Structures and~Imprecise Copulas for~Neural Network Verification	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Temporal Feature Extractors in EEG Foundation Models: A Controlled Comparison Including a Pretrained Time-Series Model	arxiv 2026-06-29	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.63	Neural Subspace Reallocation: Continual Learning as Retrieval-Based Subspace Memory Management	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	SafePyramid: A Hierarchical Benchmark for In-context Policy Guardrailing	arxiv 2026-06-29	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	Clinical Reasoning Graphs: Structured Evaluation of LLM Diagnostic Reasoning Reveals Competence Without Consistency	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Sample-Efficient Learning of Probabilistic Causes for Reachability in Markov Decision Processes with Probabilistic Guarantees	arxiv 2026-06-29	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Fast Wireless Foundation Models with Early-Exits	arxiv 2026-06-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Mechanistically Eliciting Latent Behaviors in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	MotionAtlas: Detailed Region Captioning for Motion-Centric Videos	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	CRAFT: Counterfactual Credit Assignment from Free Sibling Rollouts for Self-Distilled Agentic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-28	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	A Posteriori Error Analysis for Decoupled Neural Approximations of Fully Coupled FBSDEs with Control Mismatch	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	MuonSSM: Orthogonalizing State Space Models for Sequence Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	MuonSSM: Orthogonalizing State Space Models for Sequence Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Decision-Value Attribution in Predict-then-Optimize Systems	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Optimizer Memory Makes Shuffle Order a First-Order Source of Fine-Tuning Noise	arxiv 2026-06-28	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.63	Fractional Stochastic Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	Deciphering Region-Level Signatures from Latency Measurements in LEO Satellite Internet	arxiv 2026-06-28	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.63	Can MLLMs Critique Like Humans? Evaluating Open-Ended Aesthetic Reasoning in Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	MAM-AI: An On-Device Medical Retrieval-Augmented Generation System for Nurses and Midwives in Zanzibar	arxiv 2026-06-28	AI_034 The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approximately 5 years — driven by sub-$1,000 offline tablets and AI tutors capable of lifting historically lagging demographics (e.g. New Mexico, Sub-Saharan Africa) into top-tier performanc... Joe Liemandt	Education	22%
0.63	AURORA: Asymmetry and Update-Induced Rotation for Robust Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-28	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.63	Grasp-Oriented Non-Prehensile Manipulation via Learning a Graspability Field	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	WARP: Whole-Body Retargeting for Learning from Offline Human Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Flying to Image-Specified Objects: 3D Quadrotor Navigation via Cross-Graph Memory and Viewpoint Planning	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	AUSLUN: A Fixed-Hover UAV--USV System for GNSS-Denied Maritime Search and Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.63	AnyBody: Free-Form Whole-Body Humanoid Control from Arbitrary Keypoint Guidance	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.63	United States leading at halftime?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 29-July 5?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.63	Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-07-01	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-07-01	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.63	ComplianceGate: Classifier-Gated Multi-Tier LLM Routing for Inference in Regulated Industries	arxiv 2026-06-30	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	Neuro-Bayesian-Symbolic Residual Attention Shallow Network: Explainable Deep Learning for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	Revocable Learned State via Process Sidecars	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	ReactionAtlas: Ab origine exploration of chemical reaction networks with machine learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.63	Decision-Aware Training for Sample-Based Generative Models	arxiv 2026-07-01	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	Logit-Contribution Scoring Identifies Non-Literal Retrieval Heads	arxiv 2026-07-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	Soft Mixture-of-Recursions: Going Deeper with Recursive Vision Transformers	arxiv 2026-07-01	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.63	Accelerating Discrete Diffusion Models with Parallel-In-Time Sampling	arxiv 2026-07-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Loss Smoothing for Stable Adaptation Under Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Predicting Lethal Outcome (Cause) And Understanding Key Biomarkers Linked With Acute Myocardial Infarction Using Deep Artificial Neural Network And Ensemble Of Machine Learning Methodologies	arxiv 2026-07-01	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.63	Timesynth: A Temporal Fidelity Framework for Health Signal Digital Twins	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	Device Passport: Enabling Spatio-Temporal Pretrained Models to Generalize Across Input Layouts	arxiv 2026-06-30	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Homogenization of $\ell_2$-Adversarial Training in High-Dimensions: Exact Dynamics under Stochastic Gradient Descent	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	TRIE: An Evaluation Framework for Stochastic PDE Surrogates	arxiv 2026-06-30	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%