Validations Queue
86,658 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 188 of 1610, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.67 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.67 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.67 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.67 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | 229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.67 | FDA ANDA040186: MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — WATSON LABS | fda 2026-06-18 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.67 | FDA NDA218754: APREPITANT (APREPITANT) — AZURITY | fda 2026-06-16 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.67 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.67 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the US unemployment rate be >=6.4% in April 2028?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.67 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.67 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-24 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.67 | Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.67 | Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 25% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-02 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.67 | Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 242_021 Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 48% | ||
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-02-06 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.67 | Will I make USAMO in 2027(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.67 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.67 | FDA ANDA220264: VERICIGUAT (VERICIGUAT) — CHANGZHOU PHARMACEUTICAL FACTORY | fda 2026-04-08 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.67 | github_release 2026-04-09 | 247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.67 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.67 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2025-12-04 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.67 | If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade Peter Diamandis | AI | 36% | |
| 0.67 | If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_ASI_FAST_2031 ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI | asi_recursive_self_improvement | 10% | |
| 0.67 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil | AI | 63% | ||
| 0.67 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.67 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.67 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% |