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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.68	Adaptive Auto-Harness: Sustained Self-Improvement for Agentic System Deployment on Open-Ended Task Streams	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	Post-Deterministic Distributed Systems: A New Foundation for Trustworthy Autonomous Infrastructure	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.68	Unveiling the Entropy Dynamics of Chain-of-Thought Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.68	The Lie We Tell: Correcting the Euclidean Fallacy in Vision Language Action Policies via Score Matching on Tangent Space	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Rethinking the Role of Positional Encoding: Sliding-Window Transformers without PE Remain Turing Complete	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.68	Towards Lightweight Reliability: Using Soft Prompts for Hallucination Mitigation in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-05	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.68	Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-04	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.68	PC Layer: Polynomial Weight Preconditioning for Improving LLM Pre-Training	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Risk Assessment of Autonomous Driving: Integrating Technical Failures, Ethical Dilemmas, and Policy Frameworks	arxiv 2026-06-04	243_012 Liability costs will come down industry-wide with autonomous driving Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.68	Can LLMs Write Correct TLA+ Specifications? Evaluating Natural-Language-to-TLA+ Generation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.68	AdaMEM: Test-Time Adaptive Memory for Language Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Continual Learning Bench: Evaluating Frontier AI Systems in Real-World Stateful Environments	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Continual Learning Bench: Evaluating Frontier AI Systems in Real-World Stateful Environments	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.68	Streaming Communication in Multi-Agent Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Agent Planning Benchmark: A Diagnostic Framework for Planning Capabilities in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Rethinking Continual Experience Internalization for Self-Evolving LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.68	Accelerating and Scaling MPC-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Humanoid Locomotion and Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	VASO: Formally Verifiable Self-Evolving Skills for Physical AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	VASO: Formally Verifiable Self-Evolving Skills for Physical AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.68	Beyond Linear and Overcomplete Regimes: A Mean-Field Analysis of Bottleneck Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Rapid co-design of Buoyancy-assisted robots for Challenging Locomotion using Gaussian Evolutionary Specialists	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	LIMMT: Less is More for Motion Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	What Is My Robot Thinking? Design Considerations for Transparent and Trustworthy Shared Autonomy	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.68	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-07	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will DeepSWE be saturated before 2027 (≥90%)?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-06-09	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.68	AI Scientists Are Only as Good as Their Evidence: A Stratified Ablation of Proprietary Data and Reasoning Skills in Drug-Asset Valuation	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_019 Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from singular query-response to continuous autonomous agentic loops required for scientific discovery, underlying computational costs surge exponentially; GP... Kevin Weil	AI	70%
0.68	Memory Beyond Recall: A Dual-Process Cognitive Memory System for Self-Evolving LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Capacity, Not Format: Rethinking Structured Reasoning Failures	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.68	RAILS: Verification-Native Clearing For Agentic Commerce	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.68	BrainSurgery: Reproducible and Reliable Declarative Weight Manipulations for Model Editing and Upcycling	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	BUDDY: BUdget-Driven DYnamic Depth Routing for Adaptive Large Language Model Inference	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Multi-View Speech Representation Learning for Parkinson's Disease Detection Using Context-guided Cross-modal Attention	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.68	RAM: Reachability Across Morphologies	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Precision Is Not Faithfulness: Coverage-Aware Evaluation of Grounded Generation with a Complete Oracle	arxiv 2026-06-08	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.68	Symbolic and Abstractive Reasoning with Complex Visual Queries	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Beyond Averages: Evaluating LLMs on Human Survey Replication at the Distributional Level	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.68	Building Customer Support AI Agents at 100M-User Scale: An Evaluation-Driven Framework	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.68	A retrieval conditioned rebinding circuit for dynamic entity tracking in large language models	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	MemoryVLA++: Temporal Modeling via Memory and Imagination in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	ReGIL: Retrieval-Guided Imitation Learning from a Single Demonstration	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	LAEI: Layered Autonomous Edge Intelligence Framework for Robust UAV Swarm Operations	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.68	LAEI: Layered Autonomous Edge Intelligence Framework for Robust UAV Swarm Operations	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.68	Safe, Fluent and Acceptable Motion Generation and Execution for Human--Robot Interaction in Manufacturing Environments	arxiv 2026-06-07	229_029 Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to autonomous cars. Brett Adcock	Robotics	33%
0.68	Who will run for U.S. President in 2028 [Add Answers]	manifold 2026-06-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.68	Towards Autonomous Accelerator Design: FPGA Accelerator Generation with SECDA	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Towards Autonomous Accelerator Design: FPGA Accelerator Generation with SECDA	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.68	Generative Explainability for Next-Generation Networks: LLM-Augmented XAI with Mutual Feature Interactions	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.68	Recoverable but Not Stationary:Local Linear Structures in Weights and Activations	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Accelerating NeurASP with vectorization and caching	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Accounting for AI Inference in Corporate GHG Inventories: A Four-Tier Methodology for Scope 3 Category 1 Reporting	arxiv 2026-06-09	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.68	HIPIF: Hierarchical Planning and Information Folding for Long-Horizon LLM Agent Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.68	Speech Meets ELF: Audio Conditional Continuous-Target Diffusion for Speech Recognition and Translation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Exploration of Foundation Model-Based Robots in Patient and Elderly Care	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	PL-KKT-hPINN: Enforcing Nonlinear Equality Constraints on Neural Networks via Piecewise-Linear Projection	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Divide-and-Conquer Modeling for the CTF-4-Science Lorenz Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.68	Multi-Faceted Interactivity Alignment in Full-Duplex Speech Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.68	IMPACT: Learning Internal-Model Predictive Control for Forceful Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Ambient Diffusion Policy: Imitation Learning from Suboptimal Data in Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	The Standard Interpretable Model: A general theory of interpretable machine learning to deductively design interpretable methods using Lagrangian mechanics	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	Towards Responsibly Non-Compliant Machines	arxiv 2026-06-10	232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz	AI	51%
0.68	Hey Chat, Can You Teach Me? Structuring Socratic Dialogue for Human Learning in the Wild	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Search Discipline for Long-Horizon Research Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.68	APEX: Automated Prompt Engineering eXpert with Dynamic Data Selection	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.68	INFRAMIND: Infrastructure-Aware Multi-Agent Orchestration	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.68	Can AI Agents Synthesize Scientific Conclusions?	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.68	Adaptive Multi-Resolution Procedural Knowledge Compression for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Cross-Modal Benchmarking for Robotic Perception in Natural Environments	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Neuro-Symbolic Agents for Regulated Process Automation: Challenges and Research Agenda	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Hallucination in Medical Imaging AI: A Cross-Modality Analytical Framework for Taxonomy, Detection, and Mitigation under Regulatory Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Beyond Problem Solving: UOJ-Bench for Evaluating Code Generation, Hacking, and Repair in Competitive Programming	arxiv 2026-06-11	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.68	(Human) Attention Is (Still) All You Need: Human oversight makes AI-assisted social science reliable	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Foresight: Iterative Reasoning About Clues that Matter for Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Detecting Functional Memorization in Code Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Low-Latency Real-Time Audio Game Commentary System via LLM-Based Parallel Text Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	A Controlled Study of Decoding-Time Truthfulness Methods on Instruction-Tuned LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	GIVE: Grounding Human Gestures in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.68	Multi-Modal Multi-Agent Robotic Cognitive Alignment enabled by Non-Invasive Consumer Brain Computer Interfaces: A Proof of Concept Exploration	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_007 Technological singularity arrives by 2039 — computing capacity matches the human brain, AI processes the entirety of human knowledge, and human cognition begins to merge with machine intelligence via biological nanobots. Ray Kurzweil	AI	38%
0.68	RoboProcessBench: Benchmarking Process-Aware Understanding in Vision-Language Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.68	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.68	Will any the weights for any new Qwen Model >=100B parameters release before 2027(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-12	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.68	Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.68	Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-15	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.68	Consensus-based Agentic Large Language Model Framework for Harmonized Tariff Schedule Code Classification	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	The embrace of open science: An analysis of a decade of AI research and 56 800 conference papers	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_002 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primary human bottleneck in digital creation, making the automation of the AI researcher by 2027 a mechanical certainty. Kevin Weil	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.68	The embrace of open science: An analysis of a decade of AI research and 56 800 conference papers	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	A First-Principles Derivation of LLM Policy Optimization: From Expected Reward to GRPO and Its Structural Extensions	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Sycophancy as Material Failure under Pushback Loading: A Multi-Axis Characterization Across Three Loading Cases and up to Seventeen Material Charges	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.68	ACCORD: Action-Conditioned Contextual Grounding for Language Agents	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.68	Gaming-Resistant Insurance Contracts for Autonomous AI Agents: Strategy-Proof Toll Mechanism Design	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.68	AI Supply Chain Galaxy: 3D Visual Analytics for License Compliance	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Auditing Reward Hackability in Code RL Training Environments	arxiv 2026-06-14	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%