Predictions
182 of 1,621 predictions match — page 4 of 4. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 241_024 | Space | AI-timing | Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_026 | Space | AI-timing | Space data center technology is understood and largely figured out | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_044 | Energy | AI-timing | Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government s… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_029 | AI | AI-scaling | Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_019 | Space | orbital-AI | US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| FUT_001 | AI | LLM-human-forecasting-parity-Nov-2026 | Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite … | Superforecaster Community | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-11-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| AI_029 | AI | blockchain-provenance-deepfakes | Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise wo… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2027-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| AUT_006 | Biotech/Longevity | BioVault-Dubai-2027-10K-species | 2027 opening of the world's largest genetic BioVault in Dubai — infrastructur… | Ben Lamm | 5/5 | B | 58.0% | in_progress | 2027-01-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| CYB_006 | AI | self-writing-memory-agents | When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own … | Kevin Weil | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | in_progress | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| CYB_013 | Markets/Stocks | data-flywheel-WealthWeaver | The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on s… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | in_progress | 2027-01-01 – 2032-11-30 |
| INF_062 | Energy | 3D-graphene-batteries | Lyten will commercialize 3D-Graphene-based next-generation batteries (lithium… | Lyten | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | in_progress | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_066 | Auto/Transport | charging-bifurcation | EV charging will totally bifurcate: consumer charging becomes localized and i… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | B | 68.0% | in_progress | 2027-01-01 – 2033-11-30 |
| INF_074 | Macro/Economy | AGI-socioeconomic-disruption | AGI arrival will produce highly disruptive socioeconomic outcomes — very high… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | A | 75.0% | in_progress | 2027-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |
| 247_055 | AI | AI-scaling | Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will becom… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 241_007 | AI | AI-timing | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | San Francisco AI community | 4/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 241_043 | AI | AGI | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | in_progress | 2028-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| AI_018 | Energy | global-DC-construction | Global data center construction spend will reach approximately $2.9 trillion … | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 231_034 | Energy | AI-scaling | Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it su… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_035 | Space | SpaceX | SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving othe… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| AI_012 | Markets/Stocks | software-TAM-expansion | Software development markets will expand at approximately 20% annual rate, ba… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | in_progress | 2029-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| FUT_002 | AI | AGI-2029-2031-Metaculus-consensus | Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over … | Superforecaster Community | 5/5 | A | 55.0% | in_progress | 2029-01-01 – 2031-08-31 |
| AI_031 | Biotech/Longevity | 100-years-biology | AGI will be defined by its ability to autonomously formulate novel scientific… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | in_progress | 2030-01-01 – 2040-11-30 |
| CYB_007 | Semis | CPU-market-expansion-refined | Data-center CPU market expansion refined to $32.5-$60 billion by 2030 — CPUs … | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2030-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| INF_048 | Energy | global-DC-energy-demand | Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours … | IEA | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | in_progress | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_052 | Energy | advanced-fission-PPA | Alphabet has contracted for 500 megawatts from Kairos Power (KP-FHR fluoride-… | Alphabet | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 230_016 | Space | orbital-AI | Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 92.0% | in_progress | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| IND_005 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-CRISPR-mammoth-2031 | Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene … | Ben Lamm | 5/5 | B | 45.0% | in_progress | 2031-01-01 – 2031-06-30 |
| INF_050 | Energy | SMR-co-location | Within approximately 6-7 years (2031-2032), major tech companies will operate… | Jensen Huang | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | in_progress | 2031-01-01 – 2032-11-30 |
| SPC_009 | Space | Mars-5-to-7-year-delay | Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Ma… | Gwynne Shotwell | 4/5 | A | 35.0% | in_progress | 2034-01-01 – 2034-10-31 |
| SPC_001 | Space | global-space-economy-trillion | The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 tri… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2040-01-01 – 2040-10-31 |
| INF_064 | Auto/Transport | autonomous-ride-hailing-majority | Within 15-20 years, the vast majority of global ride-hailing trips will be fu… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2041-01-01 – 2046-11-30 |
| ROB_008 | Robotics | humanoid-5T-1B-2050 | Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive se… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 48.0% | in_progress | 2050-01-01 – 2050-09-30 |