Validations Queue
89,667 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 197 of 454, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.60 | Türkiye leading at halftime?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Brazil (-4.5)(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.60 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-03-19 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.60 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-03-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.60 | Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.60 | Will Freddy Peralta win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Brazil (-2.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Brazil (-3.5)(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Brazil (-3.5)(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Brazil (-1.5)(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.60 | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | |
| 0.60 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 93%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2025-11-25 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.60 | Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 238_059 Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 42% |