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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.67	Exposing LLM Safety Gaps Through Mathematical Encoding:New Attacks and Systematic Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.67	What Happens Inside Agent Memory? Circuit Analysis from Emergence to Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	From Knowledge to Action: Outcomes of the 2025 Large Language Model (LLM) Hackathon for Applications in Materials Science and Chemistry	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	From Knowledge to Action: Outcomes of the 2025 Large Language Model (LLM) Hackathon for Applications in Materials Science and Chemistry	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Making the Invisible Visible: Understanding the Mismatch Between Organizational Goals and Worker Experiences in AI Adoption	arxiv 2026-05-04	247_016 Huge backlash against AI abundance without institutional redesign Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	ProPACT: A Proactive AI-Driven Adaptive Collaborative Tutor for Pair Programming	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	A Domain Incremental Continual Learning Benchmark for ICU Time Series Model Transportability	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	Efficient Preference Poisoning Attack on Offline RLHF	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.67	Evaluating Generative Models as Interactive Emergent Representations of Human-Like Collaborative Behavior	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Evaluating Generative Models as Interactive Emergent Representations of Human-Like Collaborative Behavior	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Neural Control: Adjoint Learning Through Equilibrium Constraints	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.67	Orchestrating Spatial Semantics via a Zone-Graph Paradigm for Intricate Indoor Scene Generation	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Feedback Motion Planning for Stochastic Nonlinear Systems with Signal Temporal Logic Specifications	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	FDA ANDA211506: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-04-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Unintended Negative Impacts of Promotional Language in Patent Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-06	240_053 AI will generate millions of novel inventions overnight; patents become meaningless Peter Diamandis	AI	24%
0.67	Uncertainty-Aware Exploratory Direct Preference Optimization for Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.0	github_release 2023-10-20	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.67	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.22.post4	github_release 2023-10-13	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-05-08	243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.67	Will Apple announce Vision Pro 2 (or any new Vision Pro hardware) at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-08	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.67	GlazyBench: A Benchmark for Ceramic Glaze Property Prediction and Image Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.67	Coordination Matters: Evaluation of Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	231_003 Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.67	Process Matters more than Output for Distinguishing Humans from Machines	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Improving the Efficiency of Language Agent Teams with Adaptive Task Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Safactory: A Scalable Agent Factory for Trustworthy Autonomous Intelligence	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	TIDE: Every Layer Knows the Token Beneath the Context	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	BioMedArena: An Open-source Toolkit for Building and Evaluating Biomedical Deep Research Agents	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	Strat-LLM: Stratified Strategy Alignment for LLM-based Stock Trading with Real-time Multi-Source Signals	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_004 Equity markets will algorithmically reward corporate entities that utilize AI to slash headcount while ruthlessly punishing those that retain human-heavy operational structures — transforming AI from productivity tool into an economic surveillance mech... Andrew Yang	Markets/Stocks	30%
0.67	PersonaKit (PK): A Plug-and-Play Platform for User Testing Diverse Roles in Full-Duplex Dialogue	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	No Triangulation Without Representation: Generalization in Topological Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Gaming the Metric, Not the Harm: Certifying Safety Audits against Strategic Platform Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.67	Beyond BLEU: A Semantic Evaluation Method for Code Translation	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Contact-Free Grasp Stability Prediction with In-Hand Time-of-Flight Sensors	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	When Life Gives You BC, Make Q-functions: Extracting Q-values from Behavior Cloning for On-Robot Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 10?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will research-level math become a sport akin to chess before 2035?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-05-09	238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	61%
0.67	Will research-level math become a sport akin to chess before 2035?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-05-09	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Sam Altman file a case against anthropic in next 3 months?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-09	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.67	Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.67	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%