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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.68	Workflow-GYM: Towards Long-Horizon Evaluation of Computer-use Agentic tasks in Real-World Professional Fields	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	WorldKernel: A World Model is the Coupling Kernel of Admissible Possible Worlds	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.68	LIBERO-Occ: Evaluating and Improving Vision-Language-Action Models under Scene-Induced Occlusion via Viewpoint Imagination	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Reasoning or Memorization? Direction-Aware Diversity Exploration in LLM Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	ASTRA-sim 3.0: Next-Level Distributed Machine Learning Simulations via High-Fidelity GPU and Infrastructure Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.68	PADD: Path-Aligned Decompression Distillation for Non-Router Teacher to Guide MoE Student Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.68	GuideWalk: Learning Unified Autonomous Navigation and Locomotion for Humanoid Robots across Versatile Terrains	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.68	Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	25%
0.68	A Five-Plane Reference Architecture for Runtime Governance of Production AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.68	VIA-SD: Verification via Intra-Model Routing for Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Existential Indifference: Self-Nonpreservation as a Necessary Architectural Condition for Aligned Superintelligence (or: The Suicidal AI)	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.68	Goal-Autopilot: A Verifiable Anti-Fabrication Firewall for Unattended Long-Horizon Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.68	SkillJuror: Measuring How Agent Skill Organization Changes Runtime Behavior	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.68	Workflow-GYM: Towards Long-Horizon Evaluation of Computer-use Agentic tasks in Real-World Professional Fields	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	When is Your LLM Steerable?	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Verifiable Environments Are LEGO Bricks: Recursive Composition for Reasoning Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.68	CloudCons: A Comprehensive End-to-End Benchmark for Cloud Resource Consolidation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Agentic MPC for Semantic Control System Resynthesis	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	Definitional alignment before capability alignment: a Design-Science framework for adjudicating claims about AGI	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.68	RogueAI: A Reverse Turing Test for Detecting Licensed AI Deception in Dialogue	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	Rigel: Reverse-Engineering the Metal 4.1 Tensor Compute Path on the Apple M4 Max GPU	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.68	huggingface/transformers v5.12.0	github_release 2026-06-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Americans or China get to the Moon By 2030(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-06-14	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.68	How many crewed orbital space launches will there be in 2027?	manifold 2026-06-16	SPC_013 As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... Jared Isaacman	Space	46%
0.68	Will US unemployment be 4.4% or higher in June 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-15	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.68	Bayesian Inference and Decision Audits for Public Archives of Frontier AI Evaluations	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.68	LabOSBench: Benchmarking Computer Use Agents for Scientific Instrument Control	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.68	Medical world models: representing medical states, modelling clinical dynamics and guiding intervention policies	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_009 Artificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all human illnesses will be cured 'much sooner than we think'; mechanism: AI not just predicting protein structures but generating novel biological designs revolutionizing drug d... Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	19%
0.68	When Agent Automation Becomes Profitable: Quantifying and Insuring Autonomous AI Risk through Trace-Economic Underwriting	arxiv 2026-06-15	SPC_027 A 'trillion-dollar agent economy' driven by hyper-deflation of intelligence — AI intelligence becoming 100x cheaper every two years; in aerospace this enables mission planning, orbital trajectory calculation, and CAD modeling to be executed autonomousl... Alex Finn	AI	58%
0.68	From Tokens to Regions: CUDA-Sensitive Instruction Tuning for GPU Kernel Generation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.68	SciText2Eq: Assessing LLMs for Explainable Equation Generation for Scientific Creativity	arxiv 2026-06-14	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.68	Misinformation Propagation in Benign Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.68	SoK: Security and Privacy of Foundation-Model-Powered Robots	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	By when will in-space electricity production exceed surface production?	manifold 2026-06-17	235_024 In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. Alex Wissner-Gross	Energy	31%
0.68	MIVE: A Minimalist Integer Vector Engine for Softmax LayerNorm and RMSNorm Acceleration	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Brick-DICL: Dynamic In-Context Learning for Automated Brick Schema Classification	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	An AI Security Agent for Banking: Multi-Vector Fraud and AML Detection Across Retail and Corporate Accounts	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.68	An AI Security Agent for Banking: Multi-Vector Fraud and AML Detection Across Retail and Corporate Accounts	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.68	SEAGym: An Evaluation Environment for Self-Evolving LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.68	Continual Self-Improvement with Lightweight Experiential Latent Memories	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	FDA ANDA208869: RUXOLITINIB (RUXOLITINIB) — APOTEX INC	fda 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.68	Steerable Cultural Preference Optimization of Reward Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	CEO-Bench: Can Agents Play the Long Game?	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_017 Arrival of the 'AI CEO Billionaire' in 2026 — AI will automate knowledge work so effectively that a synthetic entity could run a billion-dollar enterprise autonomously. Dawn of 'Agentic Era' begins 2027, where autonomous AI agents seamlessly integrate ... Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	11%
0.68	Seeing Before Reasoning: Decoupling Perception and Reasoning for Shortcut-Resilient Multimodal On-Policy Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.68	Lifecycle-Aware Dynamic Analysis for Secure ML Model Execution	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.68	InTrain: Intrinsic Trainability for Zero-Cost Neural Architecture Search	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.68	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.68	Will Dario Amodei still be CEO of Anthropic by the end of August 2026?(market prob: 92%)	manifold 2026-06-19	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%