Validations Queue
95,758 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 295 of 417, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.66 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 3?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.66 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.66 | Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.66 | Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-13 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.66 | Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-13 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.66 | Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-13 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.66 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 6?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.66 | github_release 2026-04-13 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.66 | github_release 2026-03-16 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.66 | github_release 2024-07-02 | CMQ_030 In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 34% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-06 | SPC_023 Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c... Sam Altman | AI | 18% | ||
| 0.66 | Will SpaceX launch a rocket in the next 24h?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 27% | |
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil | AI | 63% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin | AI/Architecture | 65% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 17% | ||
| 0.66 | FDA ANDA213405: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — TORRENT | fda 2026-04-27 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.66 | Will OKLO reach $200 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | IND_020 Massive 'rerating' of Biotech industry — by 2026, generative biology achieves its 'De Novo' moment where an AI-designed drug candidate triggers multi-billion-dollar partnerships; AI expands Total Addressable Market (TAM) of gene editing by 100x, moving... Morgan Stanley | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | ||
| 0.66 | FDA ANDA210164: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — APOTEX | fda 2026-04-27 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.66 | Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | |
| 0.66 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.66 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.66 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | IND_008 2026 era characterized as building a 'country of geniuses in a datacenter' — AI enables 'biological freedom', giving humanity insights to cure complex diseases (cancer, Alzheimer's) and rapidly extend healthy human lifespan over the coming decade; same... Dario Amodei | Biotech/Longevity | 35% |