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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.65	Differentiable Learning of Lifted Action Schemas for Classical Planning	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	FDA BLA761032: SILIQ (BRODALUMAB) — VALEANT LUXEMBOURG	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-10-15	234_007 Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.65	An Interpretable Latency Model for Speculative Decoding in LLM Serving	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Not All Symbols Are Equal: Importance-Aware Constellation Design for Semantic Communication	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.65	Real-time virtual circuits for plasma shape control via neural network emulators	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	LiSA: Lifelong Safety Adaptation via Conservative Policy Induction	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Data-Augmented Game Starts for Accelerating Self-Play Exploration in Imperfect Information Games	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	ICED: Concept-level Machine Unlearning via Interpretable Concept Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	GenCircuit-RL: Reinforcement Learning from Hierarchical Verification for Genetic Circuit Design	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	Reinforcement Learning for Tool-Calling Agents in Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR)	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	FDA BLA761304: VYVGART HYTRULO (EFGARTIGIMOD ALFA AND HYALURONIDASE-QVFC) — ARGENX BV	fda 2026-05-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	FDA BLA761381: OPDIVO QVANTIG (NIVOLUMAB) — BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	How many companies with a $5T+ market cap at end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-16	238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk	Markets/Stocks	22%
0.65	FDA ANDA200880: ACETAZOLAMIDE SODIUM (ACETAZOLAMIDE SODIUM) — MYLAN ASI	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Price of July 2026 onion futures as of end of June?	manifold 2026-05-17	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-19	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	22%
0.65	Scheduling That Speaks: An Interpretable Programmatic Reinforcement Learning Framework	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Text2CAD-Bench: A Benchmark for LLM-based Text-to-Parametric CAD Generation	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.65	Generative Adversarial Learning from Deterministic Processes	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	A Simplex Witness Certificate for Constant Collapse in Variational Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	Foundation Models for Credit Risk Prediction: A Game Changer?	arxiv 2026-05-18	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.65	Equilibrium Selection in Multi-Agent Policy Gradients via Opponent-Aware Basin Entry	arxiv 2026-05-18	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.65	AdaptiveLoad: Towards Efficient Video Diffusion Transformer Training	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Revisiting the Adam-SGD Gap in LLM Pre-Training: The Role of Large Effective Learning Rates	arxiv 2026-05-18	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	StatQAT: Statistical Quantizer Optimization for Deep Networks	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	On Gaussian approximation for entropy-regularized Q-learning with function approximation	arxiv 2026-05-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	230_022 Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. Elon Musk	Robotics	22%
0.65	OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-05-30	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.65	GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-26	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.65	Will the United States unemployment rate exceed 30% any time before 2040?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-24	IND_004 True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontrollable explosion; will smoothly 'blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth'. Labor markets will adapt through traditional economic absorpt... Andrej Karpathy	AI	43%
0.65	Token-Level Generalization in LoRA Adapter Backdoors: Attack Characterization and Behavioral Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.65	Token Inflation: How Dishonest Providers Can Overcharge for Large Language Model Usage	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.65	Cookie-Bench: Continuous On-screen Key Interaction Evaluation for Web Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Teaching Language Models to Check Grounded Claim Factuality with Human Test-Taking Strategies	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	BitTP: The Lightweight Trajectory Prediction Model with BitLLM for Edge-Devices	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	DeepTool: Scaling Interleaved Deliberation in Tool-Integrated Reasoning via Process-Supervised Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Temporal Motif-aware Graph Test-time Adaptation for OOD Blockchain Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	Dissecting the Black Box: Circuit-Level Analysis of LLM Vulnerability Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Dissecting the Black Box: Circuit-Level Analysis of LLM Vulnerability Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	MIRAGE: Adaptive Multimodal Gating for Whole-Brain fMRI Encoding	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	When Do Graph Foundation Models Transfer? A Data-Centric Theory	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Cluster-Level Attention-Guided Parallel Decoding for Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	AsymVLM: Asymmetric Token Pruning for Efficient Vision-Language Model Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	DenseSteer: Steering Small Language Models towards Dense Math Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	World Models in Words: Auditing Physical State-Transition Commitments in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%