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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.65	Coordination Matters: Evaluation of Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	SCRuB: Social Concept Reasoning under Rubric-Based Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Asymmetric On-Policy Distillation: Bridging Exploitation and Imitation at the Token Level	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Topological Signatures of Grokking	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Is Escalation Worth It? A Decision-Theoretic Characterization of LLM Cascades	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.65	Shallow Prefill, Deep Decoding: Efficient Long-Context Inference via Layer-Asymmetric KV Visibility	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Beyond Autoregressive RTG: Conditioning via Injection Outside Sequential Modeling in Decision Transformer	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Does Synthetic Data Help? Empirical Evidence from Deep Learning Time Series Forecasters	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	PersonaKit (PK): A Plug-and-Play Platform for User Testing Diverse Roles in Full-Duplex Dialogue	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	HaM-World: Soft-Hamiltonian World Models with Selective Memory for Planning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Optimizing Social Utility in Sequential Experiments	arxiv 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.65	Hitting Time Isomorphism for Multi-Stage Planning with Foundation Policies	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	LINC: Decoupling Local Consequence Scoring from Hidden Matching in Constructive Neural Routing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Bridging visual saliency and large language models for explainable deep learning in medical imaging	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	PoTAcc: A Pipeline for End-to-End Acceleration of Power-of-Two Quantized DNNs	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.65	Training Transformers for KV Cache Compressibility	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	BALAR : A Bayesian Agentic Loop for Active Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Counterargument for Critical Thinking as Judged by AI and Humans	arxiv 2026-05-06	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.65	Every Step Counts: Step-Level Credit Assignment for Tool-Integrated Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Plug-and-Play Label Map Diffusion for Universal Goal-Oriented Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Track A*: Fast Visibility-Aware Trajectory Planning for Active Target Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-06	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.65	Dream-MPC: Gradient-Based Model Predictive Control with Latent Imagination	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	FDA ANDA213929: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — LEADING	fda 2026-05-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will I be alive at the end of 2029?(market prob: 91%)	manifold 2026-05-11	230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	41%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 21, 2026?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	FDA NDA021488: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	When will the Jai programming language be public?	manifold 2026-05-10	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Towards Affordable Energy: A Gymnasium Environment for Electric Utility Demand-Response Programs	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.65	Predicting Decisions of AI Agents from Limited Interaction through Text-Tabular Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-12	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	16%
0.65	Neural-Schwarz Tiling for Geometry-Universal PDE Solving at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	In-context learning to predict critical transitions in dynamical systems	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Pretraining Strategies and Scaling for ECG Foundation Models: A Systematic Study	arxiv 2026-05-12	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	Intrinsic Vicarious Conditioning for Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	On What We Can Learn from Low-Resolution Data	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	42%
0.65	Entropy Polarity in Reinforcement Fine-Tuning: Direction, Asymmetry, and Control	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Anti-Self-Distillation for Reasoning RL via Pointwise Mutual Information	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.65	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.65	Will "Maybe I was too harsh on deep learning theory..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	19%
0.65	Attention Once Is All You Need: Efficient Streaming Inference with Stateful Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Dense vs Sparse Pretraining at Tiny Scale: Active-Parameter vs Total-Parameter Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	Humanwashing -- It Should Leave You Feeling Dirty	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_025 Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous systems will generate unintended consequences forcing complete reevaluation of human purpose, economics, justice — as AI solves material scarcity + physical labor constraints, h... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Three-Stage Learning Unlocks Strong Performance in Simple Models for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Q-Flow: Stable and Expressive Reinforcement Learning with Flow-Based Policy	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Trajectory-Level Data Augmentation for Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Trajectory-Level Data Augmentation for Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Trajectory-Level Data Augmentation for Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%