Predictions
231 of 1,607 predictions match — page 2 of 5. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 247_042 | Robotics | humanoids | Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30 |
| 234_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_009 | Defense | AI-timing | Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 234_011 | Defense | AI-timing | Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increase | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-12-31 |
| 234_016 | AI | $100T | Enterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capex | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_029 | Space | orbital-AI | Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_032 | Robotics | humanoids | Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 234_038 | Real Estate | AI-timing | Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 234_043 | Education | AI-timing | Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2034-06-30 |
| 234_045 | Space | orbital-AI | Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physic… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 234_047 | AI | AI-scaling | Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_048 | AI | AI-scaling | Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-11-30 |
| 234_049 | Space | humanoids | First lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via humanoid robot con… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 236_036 | Macro/Economy | economy | Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 236_038 | Education | AI-timing | Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public be… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-09-30 |
| 236_043 | Education | AI-timing | Universities will become largest incubators on the planet | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-05-31 |
| 238_014 | AI | AI-scaling | Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do an… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_021 | AI | AI-timing | Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_022 | AI | AI-timing | From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_026 | AI | AI-timing | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_027 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_032 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | End-state of AI is abundance and post-scarce labor — path is 'no firewall' | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_037 | AI | AI-scaling | Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-09-30 |
| 238_038 | AI | AI-scaling | Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attent… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 238_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_042 | Consumer | AI-timing | Iris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail stores | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-06-30 |
| 238_044 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_045 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Eon Systems aims to upload human minds to cyberspace as soon as possible | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 238_056 | Macro/Economy | jobs | Capital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_071 | AI | AI-scaling | Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-tra… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_018 | AI | $100T | Trillion dollar company to be built turning every individual into a one-perso… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_021 | AI | AI-timing | Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 240_030 | Geopolitics | AGI | Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion o… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-11-30 |
| 240_047 | Robotics | AI-timing | Physical AI will be at least double the market opportunity of digital AI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 240_057 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_009 | Space | orbital-AI | We will have multiple Dyson swarms | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 242_018 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Human driving will never become illegal; driving will be redefined as higher … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 242_030 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Near-future reverse discrimination where humans need not apply for many jobs | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_041 | Space | AI-timing | United Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similar | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 242_043 | AI | AI-scaling | AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_044 | AI | AI-scaling | Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_045 | AI | economy | AI will redesign data centers, energy supplies, and entire economy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 242_055 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 242_056 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 246_009 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | SpaceX and Tesla will NOT merge absent financial distress or capital need. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30 |
| 246_014 | Space | orbital-AI | Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_018 | Energy | AI-timing | Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar pro… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-11-30 |
| 246_019 | Space | AI-timing | Interstellar travel will use solar sail powered by terowatt lasers carrying u… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 246_028 | AI | AI-timing | Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderlin… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-10-31 |
| 246_031 | AI | AI-scaling | Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |