Predictions
23 of 1,621 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INF_016 | Energy | power-as-binding-constraint | Power generation is the 'innermost loop' and absolute limiting factor on AI e… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 85.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| CMQ_017 | Energy | power-grid | US electricity production must grow by 'tens of percent' by end of decade to … | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| FUT_010 | Energy | solar-4x-cost-reduction-33-percent-global | Fundamental cost of clean electricity drops by another multiple of 4 over 202… | Ramez Naam | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| FUT_012 | Energy | grid-parity-subsidy-independent-fossil-stranding | Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building… | Ramez Naam | 5/5 | A | 68.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| FUT_018 | Energy | Energy-Islanding-sovereign-autonomy | Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geog… | Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| FUT_025 | Energy | renewable-runaway-feedback-loop | Runaway economic feedback loop 2026-2031: cheaper renewable energy incentiviz… | Ramez Naam | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| INF_013 | Energy | BYOP-gas | Natural gas will meet approximately 20% of the world's new power needs outsid… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | A | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| INF_015 | Energy | cooling-KPIs | Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) and Water Usage Effectiveness (WUE) will tran… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 90.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| INF_017 | Energy | Colossus-Phase-2 | xAI Colossus Phase 2 will consume approximately 1.5 gigawatts of power — city… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| INF_021 | Energy | steel-mills-climate-deferral | AI data centers are the 'steel mills of the 21st century' — humanity will mis… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_044 | Energy | US-energy-demand-growth | US total energy consumption will rise by approximately 10% over the next deca… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| INF_045 | Energy | nuclear-renaissance-capex | Nuclear sector will draw approximately $1.5 trillion in cumulative capital in… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2050-11-30 |
| INF_059 | Energy | Global-South-energy-stacking | Global South energy transitions will follow "energy stacking" rather than sub… | Peter Dannenberg | 3/5 | C | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| INF_063 | Energy | grid-scale-battery-necessity | Advancing sustainable, high-capacity battery storage is the only mechanism to… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_070 | Energy | bitcoin-mining-load-balancer | Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energ… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 241_018 | Energy | AI-timing | Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will inc… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_044 | Energy | AI-timing | Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government s… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| INF_062 | Energy | 3D-graphene-batteries | Lyten will commercialize 3D-Graphene-based next-generation batteries (lithium… | Lyten | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | in_progress | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| AI_018 | Energy | global-DC-construction | Global data center construction spend will reach approximately $2.9 trillion … | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 231_034 | Energy | AI-scaling | Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it su… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| INF_048 | Energy | global-DC-energy-demand | Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours … | IEA | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | in_progress | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_052 | Energy | advanced-fission-PPA | Alphabet has contracted for 500 megawatts from Kairos Power (KP-FHR fluoride-… | Alphabet | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_050 | Energy | SMR-co-location | Within approximately 6-7 years (2031-2032), major tech companies will operate… | Jensen Huang | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | in_progress | 2031-01-01 – 2032-11-30 |