Timeline Fan

57 of 57 tracked claims plotted by expected resolution date (X) × posterior probability (Y). Probabilities have already absorbed past + recent evidence (LBP + intake). Ghost arrows show how far each claim has moved off its analyst-seeded prior. Showing only tradeable claims (≥1 ticker exposure). Pick a fork to split into mutually-exclusive futures.

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Top predictors
AllAlex Wissner-Gross (231)Dave Blundin (165)Peter Diamandis (160)Dara Khosrowshahi (89)Elon Musk (69)Eric Schmidt (68)Brett Adcock (51)Salim Ismail (49)Ben Lamm (47)Morgan Stanley (42)Andrew Yang (35)Alex Finn (28)Jensen Huang (27)Leopold Aschenbrenner (23)Ben Horowitz (22)
0255075100history230_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve exis✓238_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI takeoff/inflection is happening now✓240_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months✓AI_023 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stake✓238_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)✓CMQ_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-20✓AI_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics o✓240_001 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027✓FUT_024 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in Interna✓AUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human en✓242_057 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission✓244_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years✓241_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation✓229_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planne✓IND_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restruct✓SEM_048 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support S✓SPC_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary mil✓SPC_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every on✓232_021 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competiti✓241_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom✓AUT_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from ✓234_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026✓242_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license✓233_020 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher progra✓CMQ_043 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — val✓246_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).✓238_041 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if)✓247_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston✓AUT_017 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using✓IND_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous do✓AI_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an ✓CMQ_053 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-la✓AI_010 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new c✓CYB_018 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — ba✓247_058 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial✓235_002 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).✓245_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE✓CYB_026 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely o✓246_047 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.✓FUT_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-✓ROB_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programmin✓ROB_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU✓INF_019 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for eva✓INF_033 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regula✓SEM_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator f✓SEM_042 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.✓INF_039 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times n✓229_013 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.✓248_040 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.✓248_005 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.✓ROB_016 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-✓CMQ_038 resolved hit on 2026-12-31 — Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to✓235_038 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.✓SEM_011 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanc✓SEM_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-30 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil f✓237_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podca✓238_072 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days✓232_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.✓241_052 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long✓245_025 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of ed✓SPC_014 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational manageme✓248_003 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.✓SPC_031 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 200✓229_028 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.✓CYB_015 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen re✓CYB_009 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Mi✓CYB_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthr✓SEM_029 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate✓INF_049 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon sup✓INF_065 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailor✓SEM_008 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.✓SEM_012 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying✓SEM_027 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap ✓SPC_004 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenu✓SPC_006 resolved hit on 2026-04-29 — Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual✓231_002 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.✗231_018 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.✗235_008 resolved miss on 2026-04-29 — Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.✗244_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years◐239_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world◐INF_058 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized sol◐232_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless compani◐236_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours◐SEM_041 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad◐AI_028 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey◐238_020 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem immi◐231_031 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.◐CMQ_036 resolved partial on 2026-12-31 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + ◐246_001 resolved partial on 2026-09-30 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.◐AI_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-caree◐246_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).◐247_023 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently◐245_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus◐INF_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network techn◐INF_029 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporat◐246_005 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.◐INF_036 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural rob◐SEM_049 resolved partial on 2026-05-24 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative se◐ROB_002 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primar◐INF_004 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty await◐SEM_033 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro pr◐INF_060 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive◐SEM_002 resolved partial on 2026-05-21 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven ◐SEM_022 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed na◐SEM_021 resolved partial on 2026-05-10 — Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts u◐SEM_037 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, fast◐SEM_040 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10◐SEM_045 resolved partial on 2026-05-03 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forci◐CYB_003 resolved partial on 2026-05-17 — Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, go◐INF_008 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 —◐INF_030 resolved partial on 2026-05-01 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously exclusive◐SEM_006 resolved partial on 2025-12-31 — OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a◐Jan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan 2027FebMarAprMayJuntodaypre #2 · hit · 2026-04-07 — SpaceX confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC (early April 2026)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-07 — SpaceX targets $1.75T-$2T valuation; $75B raisecascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-08 — SpaceX road show begins June 8, 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-18 — SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.cascade #3 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.cascade #4 · pending · 2026-08-15 — SpaceX prices and lists shares; first-day open vs offer pricecascade #5 · pending · 2026-09-30 — Largest IPO in history: SpaceX raises >$50Bcascade #6 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).pre #6 · hit · 2026-01-11 — Axiom orbital data-center nodes reach LEO (Jan 2026)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Starcloud-2 launch with onboard NVIDIA Blackwell GPUcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First peer-reviewed thermal/radiation results from on-orbit GPU computecascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Radiation-hardened or rad-tolerant AI accelerator product announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Operational orbital data-center reports >=10 kW continuous compute powercascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.pre #3 · partial · 2026-05-01 — Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-05-16 — SpaceX Starship V3 first flight testpre #1 · pending · 2026-06-20 — AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Starlink V3 deployment using Starship beginscascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — SpaceX achieves 145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026cascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — Launch-per-hour cadence remains aspirational vs ~1-3 per week realitycascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.cascade #5 · pending · 2029-04-29 — In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.cascade #6 · pending · 2033-04-24 — Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #6 · hit · 2026-03-30 — Starcloud reaches unicorn status with $1.1B valuationpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Starcloud-2 launch with Blackwell-class GPU computecascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Second well-funded space data center competitor announces orbital DC plancascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #6 · pending · 2029-03-16 — Space-based data center hits 1+ MW operational computepre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-08-31 — SpaceX 'orbital data center' constellation FCC application reaches public comment milestonecascade #2 · pending · 2027-01-30 — Starcloud or Sophia Space deploys >=10 H100/H200-class GPUs in commercial orbital clustercascade #3 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cumulative VC funding to space-based AI infrastructure startups crosses $2Bcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #5 · pending · 2027-10-01 — First space-based AI inference SLA offered to enterprise customerscascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.pre #6 · hit · 2026-03-30 — Starcloud raises $170M Series A to build orbital data centerspre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-06-26 — Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.cascade #2 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-09-07 — By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human cascade #4 · pending · 2033-07-30 — Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.cascade #5 · pending · 2033-08-10 — ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadepre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-24 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Starcloud public update on multi-GW orbital DC roadmappre #2 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Meta-Overview Energy 1 GW space-solar reservation milestonepre #1 · pending · 2026-09-04 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Academic / industry consensus that earth-bound GW AI factories scale through 2027cascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Lunar mass-driver / SBSP feasibility study publishedpre #6 · hit · 2025-09-10 — Perseverance Jezero biosignature reported as potentially biologicalpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-21 — Curiosity rover detects 20+ organic molecules at Glen Torridonpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Astrobiology paper confirms cosmic-ray-driven habitability for Mars/Europa/Enceladuspre #3 · pending · 2026-06-13 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-07-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-11 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2029-07-01 — Mars Sample Return mission launchescascade #2 · pending · 2030-08-16 — Europa Clipper begins science phase at Jupiterpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)pre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-08 — Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneouslycascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-23 — Apple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by leveraging Mac devices for local AI.cascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-19 — Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-21 — Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed.cascade #5 · pending · 2031-06-14 — Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger.cascade #6 · pending · 2036-09-06 — Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basispre #6 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — Starship V3 inaugural flightpre #5 · pending · 2026-06-11 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Public confirmation of skipped 2026 Mars windowpre #2 · pending · 2026-09-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Full-scale Starship-to-Starship orbital refueling demonstration attemptedcascade #1 · pending · 2026-10-31 — Artemis HLS lunar lander schedule slip announcementcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Updated Mars timeline pushes uncrewed mission to 2028-29 windowpre #4 · hit · 2026-02-09 — Musk publicly delays Starship Mars launch beyond 2026 transfer windowpre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-21 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-13 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-03 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-31 — Cumulative orbital propellant transfer of >=100 metric tons demonstrated in single Starship testcascade #2 · pending · 2026-09-15 — First Starship Block 3 successful flight test (Mars-capable variant)cascade #3 · pending · 2026-11-30 — November 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window closes without Starship launchcascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-17 — Cascade: SpaceX shifts focus to Artemis 3 lunar mission as primary near-term Starship deploymentcascade #5 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #6 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-31 — China will land on the moon before end of 2030cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.cascade #6 · pending · 2070-06-22 — Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.cascade #1 · pending · 2026-06-21 — State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.cascade #2 · pending · 2026-06-23 — The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity.cascade #3 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-23 — SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.cascade #5 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #6 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).pre #4 · hit · 2026-01-30 — SpaceX FCC filing for up to 1M orbital data-center satellitespre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites.pre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink each.pre #1 · overdue · 2026-05-28 — SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — US state passes new data-center moratorium / restrictive permittingcascade #2 · pending · 2027-05-02 — FCC grants partial authorization for orbital data-center constellationcascade #3 · pending · 2027-05-02 — First commercial orbital data-center customer contract announcedcascade #4 · pending · 2027-06-20 — Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).cascade #5 · pending · 2028-03-16 — Cumulative LEO/SSO compute capacity exceeds 1 MW across constellationscascade #6 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.pre #6 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cupre #2 · hit · 2026-04-30 — Global space launch market reaches $21B revenue in 2025pre #1 · overdue · 2026-04-30 — SpaceX 2026 revenue projection $22-24B with 82% commercial market sharecascade #1 · pending · 2026-07-02 — Annual orbital launch attempts cross 350 globallycascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-15 — First trillion-dollar space economy milestone projection (2032)cascade #3 · pending · 2027-11-01 — Starship operational: cost per kg to LEO drops below $500cascade #4 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearspre #6 · miss · 2026-04-29 — Maine House sustains Mills' veto — moratorium dies; thesis premise (statewide moratorium gives time) invalidatedpre #5 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Maine Data Center Advisory Council established by EO (replaces moratorium pathway)pre #4 · pending · 2026-08-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #3 · pending · 2026-11-15 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-11-15 — SpaceX Starcloud-2 launch with multi-GPU (Blackwell) orbital compute payloadpre #1 · pending · 2027-01-15 — Other state passes data-center moratorium or significant siting restriction (substitution test)cascade #1 · pending · 2028-09-25 — Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.cascade #2 · pending · 2030-06-16 — Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).cascade #3 · pending · 2030-06-22 — Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.cascade #4 · pending · 2030-07-02 — China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).cascade #5 · pending · 2040-06-18 — Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.pre #4 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.pre #3 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinnedpre #2 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decpre #1 · hit · 2026-04-29 — Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cucascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-16 — SpaceX Starship Mars uncrewed mission attempts 2026 launch windowcascade #2 · pending · 2027-07-02 — First peer-reviewed terraforming feasibility paper for Mars greenhouse gas warmingcascade #3 · pending · 2028-06-25 — We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.cascade #4 · pending · 2028-12-31 — SpaceX or government body announces formal terraforming research programcascade #5 · pending · 2030-09-27 — Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearscascade #6 · pending · 2035-07-02 — First permanent human Mars settlement attempt (precondition for terraforming)pre #4 · hit · 2025-03-01 — Europa Clipper Mars gravity assist (March 2025 — preceding Earth flyby)pre #3 · pending · 2026-08-31 — Europa Clipper instrument deployment / cruise calibration phasepre #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer windowpre #1 · pending · 2026-12-03 — Europa Clipper Earth gravity assist closest approach (~3,200 km)cascade #1 · pending · 2027-02-06 — Magnetometer calibration data published from Earth flybycascade #2 · pending · 2027-03-23 — Spacecraft trajectory enters Jupiter-bound cruise post-flybypre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-31 — Falcon 9 launch services contract finalization for Haven-1pre #5 · pending · 2026-06-12 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #4 · pending · 2026-07-16 — Haven-1 launches on Falcon 9 (current targeted window May 2026)pre #3 · pending · 2026-07-25 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-09-05 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — Vast-1 first crewed mission to Haven-1pre #4 · hit · 2026-02-09 — Musk announces Mars 2026 mission deprioritized, delayed 5-7 yearspre #3 · overdue · 2026-02-26 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-04-23 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-06-18 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-15 — Starship orbital refueling demonstration completedcascade #2 · pending · 2026-12-31 — 2026 Mars transfer window (Nov-Dec 2026) closes with zero Starship launchescascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-31 — SpaceX Starship cumulative successful test flights reach 15+ by end of 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-05-02 — Next viable Mars window targeted by SpaceX shifts to 2028/29pre #4 · overdue · 2026-02-28 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-04-27 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-24 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #1 · pending · 2026-08-16 — Optimus integration testing on Starship payload mock-upcascade #1 · pending · 2026-09-15 — SpaceX confirms Starship V3 readiness for Mars launch windowcascade #2 · pending · 2026-11-30 — Optimus reaches Mars surface in 2026 launchcascade #3 · pending · 2026-12-01 — Mars launch window opens November 2026cascade #4 · pending · 2027-03-16 — If 2026 launch slips, formal target shifts to 2028 transfer windowpre #6 · overdue · 2026-03-07 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #5 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Gwynne Shotwell publicly states 140-145 Falcon 9 launches target for 2026pre #4 · hit · 2026-03-26 — Artemis IV Moon mission targeting 2028 confirmed by Shotwellpre #3 · overdue · 2026-05-12 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #2 · pending · 2026-06-30 — SpaceX Falcon 9 H1 2026 launch cadence on track for 70+ launches by mid-yearpre #1 · pending · 2026-07-17 — Q3 window check-in (75%)cascade #1 · pending · 2026-12-01 — SpaceX achieves 140 Falcon 9 launches by year-end 2026cascade #2 · pending · 2027-06-16 — Starship operational for AI satellite mass deployment by 2027pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2010-05-02 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2015-08-31 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2020-12-29 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2026-01-30 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2026-03-01 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2026-03-30 — Q3 window check-in (75%)pre #3 · overdue · 2012-07-31 — Q1 window check-in (25%)pre #2 · overdue · 2017-02-28 — Q2 window check-in (50%)pre #1 · overdue · 2021-09-28 — Q3 window check-in (75%)target window end · today (amber dashed) · ✓/✗/◐ history strip = past resolutions · ghost arrows = evidence shift
28 plotted · 29 outside x-range · click any dot for detail

Top movers

Predictions where past + recent evidence has shifted current_prob most off the analyst-seeded prior.
GSAT-impacting (4)
248_019
AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY
US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.
65% → 12% · resolves 2026-06
-53pp
246_012
AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY
Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).
65% → 31% · resolves 2027-10
-34pp
246_038
AMZN · ASTS · BA · BAESY
Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).
92% → 60% · resolves 2026-11
-32pp
SPC_008
AMZN · ASTS · BA · BKSY
SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...
95% → 70% · resolves 2026-10
-25pp

Legend

Color = domain · purple ring = scenario · red ring = thesis killer · green ↑ / red ↓ ghost arrows = evidence shift > 10pp · ribbon dots = milestone chain (left = leading signals, right = cascades)
AILabor/JobsMacro/EconomyBiotech/LongevityAuto/TransportRoboticsMarkets/StocksSpaceEnergyGeopoliticsEducationCryptoSemisDefenseConsumerQuantum
Y-axis bands: 0–25 % red-tint (unlikely) · 25–75 % amber (uncertain) · 75–100 % green-tint (likely). Vertical amber dashed line = today. Each prediction sits at (its expected resolution date, its current probability). Probabilities are conditional on everything that has already happened — past hits/misses + recent intake updates feed into the LBP propagation that produced these values.