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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.63	Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.63	Change in US support for same-sex marriage, 2026-2027	manifold 2026-06-08	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.63	Will "Why Software Automation Is Hard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-08	244_037 Uber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of work Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	51%
0.63	Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-07	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 11?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will May 2026 U.S. real disposable personal income rise at least 0.2% month-over-month?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-06	234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) (CIK 0001375365)	edgar_8k 2026-06-09	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.63	Difference-Aware Retrieval Policies for Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Learning to Attack and Defend: Adaptive Red Teaming of Language Models via GRPO	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	Learning to Attack and Defend: Adaptive Red Teaming of Language Models via GRPO	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Observability for Delegated Execution in Agentic AI Systems	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	SpatialWorld: Benchmarking Interactive Spatial Reasoning of Multimodal Agents in Real-World Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.63	Muon Learns More Robust and Transferable Features than Adam	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	ReCoVLA: VLM-Guided Reward Compilation for Failure Recovery in Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Reasoning Arena: Trace Tournaments When Verifiable Rewards Fall Short	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.63	Anything2Skill: Compiling External Knowledge into Reusable Skills for Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Culturally-Adapted Red-Teaming Across East and Southeast Asian Contexts: A Methodological and Comparative Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.63	CANS: Accelerating Multiuser Collaborative Edge Inference via Cooperative Autodidactic NeuroSurgeon	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.63	Understanding Quantization-Aware Training: Gradients at Quantized Weights Bias to the Low-Loss Basin	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Hybrid E-Assessment in Higher Education: Semi-Automated Grading of Paper-Based Written Examinations	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	Intrinsic Selection and Particle Resampling for Inference-Time Scaling Beyond Domain Verifiability	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Inference-Time Conformal Reasoning with Valid Factuality Control for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Weighted universal approximation of differentiable maps on infinite-dimensional manifolds	arxiv 2026-06-08	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.63	Assessing Sample Quality in Conditional Generation under Compositional Shift	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Automating the Expert Eye: A System-Agnostic Deep Learning Framework for Rare Event Discovery in Imbalanced Force Spectroscopy	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Zero-Shot Semantic Re-Identification for Autonomous Driving: A VLM Baseline Study	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Counterfactual Reasoning for Fine-Grained Evidence Disentanglement in VideoQA	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Stabilizing On-Policy Distillation for MLLM Reasoning with Global Normalization	arxiv 2026-06-08	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	Reformulate LLM Reinforcement Learning for Efficient Training under Black-box Discrepancy	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Lost in the Non-convex Loss Landscape: How to Fine-tune the Large Time Series Model?	arxiv 2026-06-07	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.63	Causally Evaluating the Learnability of Formal Language Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Cross-Modal Masking for Robust Silent Speech Synthesis Using sEMG and Lipreading	arxiv 2026-06-08	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.63	From Genes to Tokens: a GWAS-inspired Approach for Interpretable Stylometric Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.63	Detecting Differences Is Not Understanding Structure: Large Language Models Fail at Graph Isomorphism	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	TrustMargin: Training-Free Arbitration between Parametric Memory and Retrieved Evidence in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Taming Perception Jitter: Uncertainty-Aware LiDAR Object Detection for Reliable Motion Classification	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.63	Autonomous FPV Flight with Translational Optical Flow and Uncertainty Mask	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	PTDL:Multi-Terrain Fall Recovery via Phase-Terrain Decoupled Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.63	Video2Sim2Real: Full-Stack Autonomous Dexterous Skill Acquisition from a Single Human Video	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Querying Counterfactuals on Tissue Graphs with Supervised Disentanglement	arxiv 2026-06-07	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	FDA ANDA220866: ANDA220866 ((unspecified)) — HETERO LABS LIMITED	fda 2026-06-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.63	K-Forcing: Joint Next-K-Token Decoding via Push-Forward Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Detecting Knowledge Gaps from Conversational AI Interactions Using Curriculum Prerequisite Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_002 Educational systems must pivot from teaching skill acquisition and execution to teaching orchestration of agentic swarms and discovery of purpose — value accrues to individuals who master AI orchestration over traditional knowledge work; rendering trad... Alex Finn	Education	50%
0.63	Post-Quantum Secure Federated DeFi for Inclusive Banking	arxiv 2026-06-09	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	Causal Ensemble Agent: Hierarchical Causal Discovery with LLM-guided Expert Reweighting	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Convergence of Monte Carlo Optimistic Policy Iteration: Beyond Uniform State-Action Updates	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	The Distributed Detectability Band Against Marginal-Preserving Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_026 Autonomous AI agents will execute multi-stage cyberattacks at machine speeds far surpassing the defensive capabilities of human security teams — bad actors will utilize the same multi-agent paradigms that enable legitimate corporate organizations, targ... Alex Finn	Defense	77%
0.63	Automated Pronunciation Evaluation for Korean Toddler Speech using Speech Diarization and Self-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Gaming AI-Assisted Peer Reviews Poses New Risks to the Scientific Community	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	A Systematic Approach for Selecting Trajectories for Data Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-09	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	PL-KKT-hPINN: Enforcing Nonlinear Equality Constraints on Neural Networks via Piecewise-Linear Projection	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.63	Dexterous Point Policy: Learning Point-based Dexterous Hand Policies from Human Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	DUET -- Dual User Embedding Transformers for Offsite Conversion Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Decision-Calibrated Conformal Uncertainty for Pacing Decisions in Streaming Advertising	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	Trainability of IQP Quantum Circuit Born Machines Under Gaussian Initialization	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Effective Training Principles of Physical Reservoirs	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.63	A Controlled Audit of Pretraining Contamination in Public Medical Vision-Language Benchmarks	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Learning the Universe: Posterior Reliability of Neural Generative Models in High-Dimensional Field-Level Inference of Cosmic Initial Conditions	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.63	ParaBridge: Bridging Paralinguistic Perception and Dialogue Behavior in Speech Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Prefilling-dLLM: Predictive Prefilling for Long-Context Inference in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	TabClaw: An Interactive and Self-Evolving Agent for Spreadsheet Manipulation and Table Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	From Genes to Tokens: a GWAS-inspired Approach for Interpretable Stylometric Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.63	TacForeSight: Force-Guided Tactile World Model for Contact-Rich Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	LieIPM: Lie Group Interior Point Method for Direct Trajectory Optimization of Rigid Bodies	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	FDA ANDA219552: PEMIGATINIB (PEMIGATINIB) — SANDOZ INC	fda 2026-06-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12?(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will June 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-06-10	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will June 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-08	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.63	System Report for CCL25-Eval Task 5: New Dataset and LoRA-Fine-Tuned Qwen2.5	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Multi-Rate Mixture of Experts for Accelerating Liquid Neural Network Training	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Grammar-Constrained Decoding Can Jailbreak LLMs into Generating Malicious Code	arxiv 2026-06-10	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.63	Fast Speech Foundation Model Distillation Using Interleaved Stacking	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	MoCA-Agent: A Market-of-Claims Code Agent for Financial and Numerical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	MPC-Patch-Bench: Security-Aware LLM Code Patch for Multi-Party Computation	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	The Dynamics of Human and AI-Generated Language: How Semantics Fluctuates across Different Timescales	arxiv 2026-06-09	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.63	Categorical Robustness Assessment for Machine Learning based Network Intrusion Detection Systems	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.63	PAWS: Preference Learning with Advantage-Weighted Segments	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.63	HAMNO: A Hierarchical Adaptive Multi-scale Neural Operator with Physics-Informed Learning for Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Counterexample Guided Learning in the Large using Reasoning Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	Mirror Descent Beyond Euclidean Stability: An Exponential Separation in Initialization Sensitivity	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Agreement in Representation Space for Open-Ended Self-Consistency	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	External Experience Serving in Production LLM Systems: A Deployment-Oriented Study of Quality-Cost Trade-offs	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	K-Forcing: Joint Next-K-Token Decoding via Push-Forward Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Explore From Sketch: Accelerating UAV Exploration in Large-scale Environments with Prior Maps	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.11.0	github_release 2025-11-13	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%