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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.72	Bitcoin $100k before End of June 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-16	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.72	Beyond Scaling: Agents Are Heading to the Edge	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.72	DenseSteer: Steering Small Language Models towards Dense Math Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	WorldMemArena: Evaluating Multimodal Agent Memory Through Action-World Interaction	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	How high will SpaceX get on the Market Cap Leaderboard in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.72	Will an OpenAI or Anthropic employee comment on this market first?	manifold 2026-06-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.72	Scaling Agentic Capabilities via Grounded Interaction Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	RedKnot: Efficient Long-Context LLM Serving with Head-Aware KV Reuse and SegPagedAttention	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Beyond Semantic Organization: Memory as Execution State Management for Long-Horizon Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.72	Individual Gain, Collective Loss: Metacognitive Adaptation in AI-Assisted Creativity	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion, on June 12th, the IPO date of Spacex?(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-06-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.72	Twelve quick tips for designing AI-driven HPC workflows	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.72	How AI Agents Reshape Knowledge Work: Autonomy, Efficiency, and Scope	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.72	Terastal: Layer-Variant-based Scheduling for Real-Time Multi-DNN Workloads on Heterogeneous Accelerators	arxiv 2026-06-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.72	Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire by June 22, 2026?(market prob: 90%)	manifold 2026-06-09	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.72	Harness Engineering for Physical AI: Robot Middleware Is the Harness Layer	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	SkillHone: A Harness for Continual Agent Skill Evolution Through Persistent Decision History	arxiv 2026-06-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	Achieving Cloud-Grade SLOs for Local Mixture-of-Experts Inference through CPU-GPU Hybrid Design	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Flow Control: Steering Vision-Language-Action Models with Simple Real-Time Inputs	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	UMI-Bench 1.0: An Open and Reproducible Real-World Benchmark for Tabletop Robotic Manipulation with UMI Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	When will AI execute most of my research?	manifold 2026-06-09	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.72	A Five-Plane Reference Architecture for Runtime Governance of Production AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.72	Embodied-BenchClaw: An Autonomous Multi-Agent System for Embodied Spatial Intelligence Benchmark Construction	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	When will there be humanoid robots doing paid work outdoors in the US?	manifold 2026-06-12	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.72	A Three-Layer Framework for AI in Scientific Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.72	May 2026 AI model releases	manifold 2026-04-30	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.72	A Workflow-Oriented Framework for Asynchronous Human-AI Collaboration in Hybrid and Compute-Intensive HPC Environments	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.72	Brainrot: Deskilling and Addiction are Overlooked AI Risks	arxiv 2026-05-05	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.72	From Barrier to Bridge: The Case for AI Data Center/Power Grid Co-Design	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.72	AI-Generated Smells: An Analysis of Code and Architecture in LLM and Agent-Driven Development	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.72	Post Reasoning: Improving the Performance of Non-Thinking Models at No Cost	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.72	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-05-12	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.72	ROMER: Expert Replacement and Router Calibration for Robust MoE LLMs on Analog Compute-in-Memory Systems	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Will SpaceX complete a Starship integrated test flight reaching orbital insertion by June 14, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-05-16	246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.72	Will Anthropic release a new model stronger than Haiku 4.5 before June 16?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.72	Will an OpenAI or Anthropic employee comment on this market first?	manifold 2026-06-01	235_047 AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs). Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.72	SIRI: Self-Internalizing Reinforcement Learning with Intrinsic Skills for LLM Agent Training	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.72	Statistical Priors for Implicit Preferences: Decoupling Skill Selection as a Local Harness in Personal Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.72	Representation Learning Enables Scalable Multitask Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.72	Catastrophic Forgetting as Accessibility Collapse: A Three-Level Framework for Knowledge Persistence in Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.72	Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.72	Will anthropic be up a week from now?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-06-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.72	What will OpenAI do before IPO that is easier as a private company? [Add answers]	manifold 2026-06-08	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.72	RAILS: Verification-Native Clearing For Agentic Commerce	arxiv 2026-06-07	AI_027 Autonomous AI agents cannot function efficiently on legacy slow-moving fiat banking rails — therefore AI systems will inevitably adopt Bitcoin and scalable cryptographic networks as their native digital capital, operating independently across borders a... Michael Saylor	Crypto	25%
0.72	SynManDex: Synthesizing Human-like Dexterous Grasps from Synthetic Human Pre-Grasps	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.72	Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2030?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-09	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.72	MARCH: Model-Assisted Reinforcement Learning for the Perceptive Control of Humanoids over Sparse Footholds	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%