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63,896 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 15 of 43, 50 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.73	Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.73	Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.73	prediction spacex ipo reach 1 125000963.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.73	Musk v. openAI trial prop bets [add answers]	manifold 2026-04-30	247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.73	Litespark Inference on Consumer CPUs: Custom SIMD Kernels for Ternary Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.73	EvoMemBench: Benchmarking Agent Memory from a Self-Evolving Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.73	Will data centers consume more than 10% of US electricity usage by EOY 2028?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-28	INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley	Energy	46%
0.73	What will Anthropics Public Ticker be?	manifold 2026-06-02	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.73	ProbeScale: Probing Analysis to Optimize Neural Scaling Laws for Efficient Small Language Model Inference	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	When will Manifest 2026 have 10+ session videos available online?	manifold 2026-06-03	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.73	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.73	Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.73	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.73	What will be the lowest value Bitcoin reaches in 2027?	manifold 2026-06-09	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.73	Resource-aware Computation-Communication Overlap for multi-GPU ML Workloads	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.73	Sustainability and Artificial Intelligence: Necessary, Challenging, and Promising Intersections	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg	Other	42%
0.73	Structuring agentic AI for HPC code modernization	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.73	Beyond FLOPs: Benchmarking Real Inference Acceleration of LLM Pruning under a GEMM-Centric Taxonomy	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.73	Beyond APIs: Probing the Limits of MLLMs in Physical Tool Use	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.73	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	238_051 If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.73	Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.73	Learning to Assist: Collaborative VLAs for Implicit Human-Robot Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	How many successful SpaceX launches in May 2026 UTC	manifold 2026-05-01	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.73	Cryptographic Registry Provenance: Structural Defense Against Dependency Confusion in AI Package Ecosystems	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.73	Evaluating Generative Models as Interactive Emergent Representations of Human-Like Collaborative Behavior	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	Will Google announce Gemini 3.2 or Gemini 3.5 at I/O 2026?(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-05-12	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.73	Position: Behavioural Assurance Cannot Verify the Safety Claims Governance Now Demands	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.73	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-03	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.73	What will be the first one-person company to reach a $1 billion valuation?	manifold 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.73	Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-01	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.73	Anthropic closing market cap on IPO day?	manifold 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.73	Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-01	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.73	World-Task Factorization for Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	World-Language-Action Model for Unified World Modeling, Language Reasoning, and Action Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.73	Powering the Future of AI: Navigating the Trade-offs for Europe's Energy Transition and Net-Zero Goals	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.73	Powering the Future of AI: Navigating the Trade-offs for Europe's Energy Transition and Net-Zero Goals	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.73	From USD Scenes to Knowledge Graphs: Zero-Shot Ontology Grounding with LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.73	VAIC: Vision-Guided Humanoid Agile Object Interaction Control via Decoupled Commands	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.73	Will there be a trillionaire not named Elon Musk by end of 2027?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-12	238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.73	The Illusion of Multi-Agent Advantage	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.73	Smarter Saboteurs, Better Fixers: Scaling & Security in Linear Multi-Agent Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.73	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-20	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.73	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-02-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.73	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.73	Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.73	Cryptographic Registry Provenance: Structural Defense Against Dependency Confusion in AI Package Ecosystems	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.73	Will Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-08	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%